I, like everyone else, greatly appreciate both the scientifically- oriented contributions made by so many and the well-reasoned bearish points of view that are presented from time to time.
Frankly, in regards to Remune's Ph3 Remune trial, the recent angst contains absolutely no new news. I posted several weeks ago about my conversation with Larry Gibson. He was quite clear about two things: 1) It was unlikely that the trial would be halted early by the DSMB 2) If Remune hit their endpoints in 3/99, there is no doubt that it is approvable given the a priori cooperation/input the FDA had in the trial design. Too, I have posted more than once about the false hope that seems to be built into the next release from the DSMB.
Personally, my record as a market predictor is pretty poor. I have no idea what effect on IMNR's stock price there will be if the trial is not halted. From what I've read - in both IMNR press releases, analyst reports and media articles, everyone expects a 1999 launch of Remune. This is consistent with the trial continuing to 3/99 as the NDA would be filed very soon after and the drug approved in less than 6 months - typical of the AIDS drugs that have been approved. So, given the lack of analyst coverage on IMNR, I really don't think too many people are holding out for early approval. I do agree (and have stated previously) if IMNR does take a significant hit in price, that would represent the "last great fire sale" on IMNR.
I've been burned before trying to time too finely (see my post on IPIC re: GLIA). I would suggest that those afraid of taking a huge hit in May/June should sell a portion of their holdings, not all. As I've mentioned a few times on other boards, even if Remune were halted early and the stock price went up big-time, IMNR would STILL likely be substantially undervalued. Hence, investors could get in then, with substantial profits ahead w/o most of the perceived risk. So, I'd recommend that people who are concerned about IMNR volatility simply hedge their position.