Another arguement for gold:
"Loan delinquencies at U.S. banks at 8-year high-Fed" Wednesday September 11, 5:29 pm ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Loan and lease
delinquency rates at U.S. banks rose to their highest levels in eight years in the second quarter of 2002 on climbing late commercial and
industrial loans, according to recent Federal Reserve data. Delinquency rates at all banks climbed to 2.76 percent in the three months ending in June, the Fed said in a report on charge-off and delinquency rates on loans and leases at commercial banks. The last time the rate of delinquencies was higher was 2.84 percent in the second quarter of 1994. Late commercial and industrial loans rose to a rate of 3.99 percent in the quarter, the highest rate since 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 1993. Delinquent loans are 30 days past due. Delinquency rates for commercial bank loans crested at above 6 percent at the end of 1990 and the beginning of 1991, when the U.S. economy was in its last recession. The level of late loans at commercial banks has been below 3 percent since early 1994.
The loans past-due data comes as mortgage bankers report mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at record highs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Monday that 1.23 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure, the highest level in the 30 years the trade association has kept track of the number.
In addition, 4.77 percent of mortgage borrowers were delinquent in the second quarter, the highest level since the mid-1980s, the MBA said.
Analysts attributed the rise in foreclosure rates to climbing unemployment, among other possible factors.
You've got a very nice place to live. I recently took the family to Topsail Island, NC. Great beach and climate. Vacationed there as a kid. WOW has that place grown. Still the cheapest oceanfront property in America.
some of these high priced spots will be the ones that have the housing bubble.. prices will come down.. but nothing like the NAZ, a 320K house might go down to 250 or something like that. The real impact of the housing bubble will be that its hard to even sell a house... at any price.. if things get really bad.. which they might well.. umemployemnt will be up and thats important, but with all of the credit inflation that has occured..there will be inflation.. then in order to keep the process going you have to have lenders that are willing to lend and borrowers who are able to repay.. that chain will break down.. and there will be foreclosures.. which will drive the entire housing market down...again more so in the big city areas. I think the bottom line is I sure as shootin wouldnt be buying real estate as an investment.. having said that if you want to buy a house and plan on living there.. I wouldnt put your plans on hold. I would recommend that you not have a note, taxes and insurance that exceeds about 15-18% of your annual income... and that you have at least 1-2 years of cash that you can use if necessary to keep making the payment.. while you find another job. or sell your house. Whereas as real estate increases..its a great deal to put a little down on the house and get a huge appreciation of your investiment...in decreasing times. obvioulsy its the opposite... so if you buy a 400K house and only put down 40K...you might well lose 100 K on the 40 K you invested. So if buying a house now. .I would put as much down as you can stand and keep the note as low as possible. The good news is that if you are in gold shares.. your wealth and buying power will be going up relative the rest of the population.. and there will be some real buys out there in the next 4-10 years.
My brother and his wife bought over 290 acres and a decent house for about $360,000 about 45 minutes from here, about four years ago.
They could easily get double for it today, within a few days, I am certain of it.
I am considering various factors for my decision, but the more I read, the more I think that prices have at least peaked for a while, although asking my question obviously means that I have not become fully convinced, but I am leaning much more in that direction, and appreciate getting others opinions on the matter.
Oh heck, there is always camping in the National Forest, I can say that I own part of it, right? In the mean time, I can save up more golden dinero funds to buy a nicer pad when the time is right.
Hey, my car is paid for, the house closes on the 20th, I will be debt free it looks like just in time. :)
I can't even imagine the devestation to the markets (housing and otherwise) when we go to war...
a friend of mine said, if you believe in deflation coming, you will sell your house and rent.
You have a smart friend. I did the same and spread the money in cash (90%), gold (8%), and oil stocks (2%). Those that don't see the debt bubble ($1.7 Trillion) and the housing bubble the fed has created are the same ones that got caught by the stock bubble in the late 1990's. There is even a historical record showing the housing bubble trails stock bubble by a couple years. The Fed doesn't want to panic the public, so even Greenspan is lying about it.