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DRDGOLD Ltd. Message Board

  • jermarge2000 jermarge2000 Jan 10, 2004 4:11 PM Flag

    Economic Collapse?

    My question is this; Will we have a disorderly, (aka Great Depression II), collapse, or a planned orderly transition into one world government?

    I suspect that almost everyone who understands hard metals, or nearly everyone on this site accepts that there are black clouds on the horizon.

    Will we be rewarded for being contrarians?
    Will there be sufficient disruption for gold to rocket up, while at the same time will the market continue to function so we can collect on our DROOY?

    What's your opinion?

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    • Well, this is a key question. I think that the solid positives of the US economy cannot be discounted. Educated, diversified workforce (the best educated often being imported), word class companies, world class basic reasearch, leading positions in pharmaceuticals, aircraft, on and on. Similar things can be said for Europe and Japan, and Europe's monetary policy, oddly enough, is the most responsible at present, probably for strategically competitive reasons.

      The productivity revolution also probably has some truth to it, permitting in theory some hope for profits to rise to where stock prices already are.

      The bedrock facts supporting goldbugs include the unsustainability of the structural imbalances, in trade and borrowing (at all levels) for the US, in currency levels for Japan and perhaps China. These certainly connot be corrected without a significant disruption (recession), and that recession will expose the monetary shenanigans that have been going on among those who set a value for our money. That exposure will lift gold.

      How bad must it all be. Pretty bad, but if the dollar is the stock of the country, I consider that there has been major dilution, but dilution of a reasonably solid corporation, so I don't personally see total bankruptcy on the horizon.

      Then again, Germany was in many ways a solid going economic concern in 1921. Alot depends on what our governors do once it all gets started.

      • 1 Reply to puffnmogy
      • You are correct.

        Many of the societies on earth have a lot going for them. But as even a rich man can get in over his head in debt, so can societies.

        Didn't the boxer who had a taste for ear snacks during bouts, make about $300 million before he declared bankruptcy?

        And Michael Jackson make a few nickels and I understand he's broke too.

        Both with marketable skills but too much debt.

        Regards,

        Jack

 
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