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DRDGOLD Ltd. Message Board

  • jermarge2000 jermarge2000 Jan 31, 2004 6:50 PM Flag

    Fairytale Weekly

    As you digest the weekly fairytales, keep in mind that my general approach is that in the long run.....we'll all be dead, so I'm not so much concerned with the long run as whether I'll live to fight another day.

    The DOW is toast, as is the S&P. It is clear that there can be no intervention by the PPT sufficient to accomplish more than an orderly decline, in spite of upcoming election.

    Bonds are headed up (soon) which means interest rates are headed lower (soon), which means the dollar will resume its downtrend, which means gold will resume its up trend.

    The silver chart is looking extremely toppy. The silver miners however, particularly AEM, are looking extremely bottomy. (Is that in Websters?) The only explanation that I can think of for this is that the shorts have been squeezed to the very limit of their tolerance. Looks like an extreme trade for those with the stomach. I might suggest buying puts and calls, one thing is for sure, we won't get a sideways consolidation from here.

    If DROOY closes above $3.50, buy with both hands! The weekly DROOY chart is projecting an upside explosion soon! The consolidation in gold price will end once $390 is touched, then up up & away.

    Kinross is getting prepared for an upside explosion as are oil service stocks.

    Need a quick buck? Buy a couple of puts on compuware. Sell when gap around $7.40 gets filled.

    I could be wrong, I usually am.

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    • <<...keep in mind that my general approach is that in the long run.....we'll all be dead,...>>

      No argument here, whatsoever. Logical approach. I agree.

      <<The DOW is toast, as is the S&P.>>

      I agree here too. Time-frame is difficult to predict though. Higher, and sustainable, energy prices are key here. The caveat being that hyper-inflation sets in and absolute numbers have little meaning, in that, the Dow makes new all-time highs (so too does the Nasdaq and S&P 500) but commodity based equities (gold and oil specifically) outperform on a relative strength basis.

      <<Bonds are headed up (soon) which means interest rates are headed lower (soon), which means the dollar will resume its downtrend, which means gold will resume its up trend.>>

      I totally agree with this summation in it's entirety. Again, timing is an issue here with the technicals, particularly concerning the greenback and bond prices as technicals dictate in a bear market. The 50 and 200 day will have a lot to say about this.

      <<...getting prepared for an upside explosion as are oil service stocks.>>

      You nailed this one!

      <<I could be wrong, I usually am.>>

      Not this time.

    • always good to remember that there are two sides to the trade and the guy behind the screen takes what ever side you do not.

    • Jermarge I think you may have the senario a bit backwards
      "Bonds are headed up (soon) which means interest rates are headed lower (soon), which means the dollar will resume its downtrend"
      Bonds are going to have a severe oversupply problem, but the dollars still toast LLU

    • And I forgot to add a huge driver of the AU price higher

 
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