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Dais Analytic Corporation Message Board

  • tkondrchek tkondrchek Sep 24, 2009 5:02 PM Flag

    I'm in

    Local Tampa Bay companies hits a homerun. Now that I'm invested I hope the PPS hits a homerun too.

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    • The "contract" calls for $200M of product sales over 5 years. How much might this company be worth if it truly does $40M/yr of business. Assume generously 10% net margins, then you get $4M of net income. The s-1 says there are over 30M shares outstanding when you include warrants and convertible bonds. So we're talking maybe $.13/share at some point (years?) into the future. If we again generously give a PE ratio of 20x, then we might believe that if everything goes well, this stock could be worth as much as $2.60/share (in a few years).

      BUT, this "contract" seems to be pretty light weight. As I read it, if the China company doesn't hit its targets (which are surely already lower than their suggested $40M/yr number), then Dais gets to take away their exclusive distributorship status but that's all. Well, if they're not hitting the targets, I'm not sure that the China company really cares. Not much downside to Genertec. When I hear they have signed purchase orders than I'll be less skeptical but until then, well you might want to rethink mortgaging your house to invest in this 18 person company at any price.

      Juse my $.02

      • 3 Replies to buydi1
      • I think your assumptions are not generous. 10% margin sounds more like home depot, and not a start-up with a hot new product. Everything is speculative at this point, but I think earnings could reach anywhere between $0.20 to $1.00 per share. You have to remember these guys have no "real" competition. Their product is the only of its type to perform so well.

        Given, if this company can continue with their growth, people will likely start paying a premium for this stock and may go anywhere from P/E of 15 to 30. So obviously... I'm predicting a share price between $3 to $30 (in the next two years). You just won't know until a fair audit and analyst weighs in.

      • I especially like their NANOCLEAR product because of its potential to be developed into a small scale, reasonably priced, water purification device. It has a huge potential for providing clean water in areas of the world that have very little pure water resources. It's a problem that's growing larger by the day with the worlds runaway population growth and ecological changes.

      • What you're forgetting is that this contract is great PR for others to look at and wonder why the Chinese are so interested in the product(s). I think you will see more interest going forward, and hence more contracts.

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