Hmmmmmmmmmmm.. I wonder if the investors that recently put up $40 million thought that there was a 60% chance that this stock would never be worth more than three bucks? As an accountant, I am always interested in detail assessments, provided there is some supporting criteria, other than contrarian motives.
Which is one of the reasons I decided to buy PLM. CLF is about as established as you get in US mining. The interest they received in PLM for the Erie Plant was worth next to nothing at the time. Clearly they anticipate PLM to perform well. As for taking them over I doubt it, but it would obviously be more likely than RIO. I would gladly accept a CLF buyout for a 1-1 stock swap :) (CLF is trading about 120/share). I wish I had gotten into CLF a few years ago. I though it was going to pop in the $50's - shows what I know.
I am not sure if RIO or anyone else is interested but I would be surprised of any purchase before the permits. I look at this as a large drug company would. Buy the company after the FDA has granted approval. They would rather pay up for a sure thing. Maybe Clev Cliffs gets interested. They own 7% now.
To say this company has a 45% of going bankrupt is equally as dumb as those saying it will go to $100/share. Of course there is a chance either of these could happen, but they are very unlikely.
The minerals are there, the permits are pretty close to a sure thing. Northern MN needs this to go through. Can they extract the minerals for a profit? That is the real speculation in this stock. However, this is far from a pink sheet company. If anyone believes there is a 45% chance a company is going to go bankrupt, they have to be insane to invest in it.
$20 a share in three years seems like one of the BEST possible outcomes IF everything goes their way (see my previous, much maligned but accurate, posts detailing this).
If I had to handicap the price 3 yrs from now it I'd say:
bankruptcy: 45% less than current trading price but not bankrupt: 15% 3.5-5 bucks p/s: 20% 5-20 bucks: 15% 20+: 5%
that said- I like those odds, especially in this market. but let's keep things reasonable. claiming RIO has any interest in a company with no income and no operating mines seems rather speculative to me, and that's the sort of thing that needs to be reflected in discussions and in share price. is there a potential upside here? of course, but consider the VERY high liklihood of a downside. best of luck to all.