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The Men's Wearhouse, Inc. Message Board

  • nuke___ nuke___ Nov 23, 1998 10:47 AM Flag

    What does everybody think?

    Hey folks,
    I bailed out of SUIT (I'm an
    IDIOT!) in the 24's last week, and have been looking to
    get back in ever since. Now, however, the price has
    soared into the 30's on next to nothing for volume, and
    looks to continue to go up. I'd like to get in on a
    piece of the action, but with a P/E pushing into the
    30's as well, this is seeming more and more to me like
    an internet stock than a retail stock. I know, I'm a
    wuss, but I'm scared. Is SUIT pushing into a whole new
    trading range, as someone earlier has suggested? Or is
    this simply a temporary aberration? What does everyone
    here think? What are your share price targets/dreams
    through early next year? Just looking for thoughts and
    ideas, any positions on SUIT are welcome. Thanks, Nuke

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • To everyone who reads this board, I apologize if
      I have given the impression in my previous rant
      that I found TMAN to be a "crappy" stock. I, as a
      small shareholder of TMAN and well as of SUIT, did not
      intend to give this impression. Please forgive me if
      this has misled or offended anyone in any way. Thanks,
      and GO SUIT (and TMAN)! After today's action, I
      almost feel as though my worries are vindicated. For a
      brief while there I wasn't sure just WHAT was up. I
      hope that my "worry-wart" tendencies are not too
      offensive to everyone, but I'm afraid that they'll only
      continue to be aired. And al, I can and DO go crazy over
      day to day events in many stocks. It's part of what
      keeps it all interesting to me. Best of luck to all,
      Nuke

    • Agreed, Al, I'm concerned by this new development
      as well. At the risk of being labeled as down on the
      stock, they are: What impact will an approximately 15%
      increase in the float (2.5 to 2.75 million shares
      estimated) in mostly foreign hands do to the stock price
      while SUIT is assuming $90 million (Canadian) in debt,
      which they "hope to refinance" as well? Seemed like the
      stock was floundering until the deal was called off,
      then it rose. I recall reading a "collective sigh of
      relief" here on the board when the deal was nixed
      earlier. Now the deal is back on again, with SUIT issuing
      up approximately $65 million worth of stock, and
      assuming $90 million (Canadian) in debt, while taking on
      over 100 new stores spread all over another country,
      all to pick up MAYBE $15 million in revenues. What
      attraction does this acquisition hold for the current
      shareholders? Surely this can't help the P/E ratio, which is
      currently running somewher around 25 or so. Seems as though
      this constitutes a substantial change in SUIT's
      make-up. While I'm no financial expert, I would welcome
      some of the better informed and more SUIT familiar
      investor's input and take on this matter. As SUIT seems to
      be well managed, does this truly represent a good
      marriage for the company? Does SUIT have the necessary
      personnel and expertise to take on such a project and to
      flourish in the Canadian market? Clearly they think so.
      What does this do to future growth prospects?
      Certainly there should be little intra-chain interplay, so
      things certainly fit together well from a geographic
      standpoint, as long as SUIT can manage the distances
      involved. Is MOORES' clientele similar in terms of
      demographics? What about their product mix, production
      facilities, and margin numbers? Anybody have any numbers? Any
      opinions? I'm not sure that the merger is a negative, but I
      seem to recall that being the general take of the
      poster's in the past. Is the 15% or so price drop in SUIT
      experienced in the past few days related in some way to this?
      MOORES Could well be just what SUIT needs...let's hear
      about it. Best of luck to all, Nuke

    • i am definitely confused by this canadian
      purchase by SUIT.

      first, a few months ago, they
      announced that they were interested in buying MOORES. then
      last month or so, they issued a press release
      saying...the MOORES deal was DEAD.

      now, without any
      reason or explanation, they change their minds AGAIN and
      buy MOORES?????

      doesnt moores have a whole
      bunch of DEBT that is now SUIT'S DEBT!!!

      why
      didnt they go after JOSB, MENS OR TMAN , all of these
      company's are profitable and without debt!!!!

      what's
      your opinion ragman & et al.

      thanks,

      al

    • Thanks for the response. Sorry if I was a little
      harsh in my previous post. I DO appreciate the long
      term perspective and insight that your experience in
      SUIT provides, and will continue to view your posts
      with interest. What's more, I am in the middle of
      reviewing my SUIT position, and past trades for what looks
      like a very strong likelihood of another entry early
      next week. I'm looking at SUIT from a short term
      trader's perspective, not because I don't believe in the
      stock (I do, very strongly), but because I was enough
      of a bonehead to let emotions take me out of the
      stock a little ways back and now, while frustrated,
      don't want emotions to lead me to repeat my mistake
      when jumping back in. While I still strongly believe
      that the stock is trending downwards and that I was
      right to hesitate on my re-entry (the results now
      clearly support this, as we're down to 26 3/4 from over
      30), I also see pretty good support in the 23 to 25
      range, and I feel quite strongly that things will move
      well upwards from there. Whether we fall further to
      test the support looks to me to depend only on the
      mood of the market. If things start rocking tomorrow
      or Monday, it'll likely just head back up from here.
      Long term, we're in complete agreement that I think
      she goes for 50 and beyond. Otherwise, I wouldn't be
      looking to tag along. I like the company, like the
      stores, like the business, the management, the current
      holiday sales environment, the financial status, the ss
      numbers, etc. I would, however, be remiss if I didn't fret
      at least a bit over the things that spook me as
      well. This Canadian pick up...didn't similar adventures
      get these folks in hot water somewhere in the past?
      Also, the rather strong trend away from suits to
      "business casual" scares me in the very long term as well.
      In any case, I view this board as a place for folks
      who want to discuss their concerns, either technical,
      analytic, fundamental, intra-day, or whatever to "hang
      out". I'll try to back things off a notch if folks
      don't want to discuss the cons as much as the pros. For
      my part, I view such as a healthy way to really
      examine all aspects of an investment, and prevent myself
      from falling victim to the cheerleaders euphoria. Best
      of luck to all SUIT investors in any case...I'll be
      around...Nuke

    • Can't figure your getting out at $24... Friday's
      close at $29... I bought more at $24 and expect to see
      it well into the 30"s by year end if not higher.
      Their annual sale begins day after Christmas and are in
      a great position to bust all LY's numbers. My
      experience has been that SUIT will continue to trend up over
      the next six months...another split by June/July when
      it hits the high fifties...Hang on to what you got.
      Getting back in at $29 would be okay too. You won't loose
      but don't snooze...

      • 2 Replies to ragman_2
      • Hi, ragman2. Based on all the posted messages,
        you seem to know this stock pretty well -- would
        really appreciated it if you would share some insight.
        1) Does SUIT always (I mean, every single year) have
        an annual sale day after X'mas? 2) Is the business
        pretty seasonal -- when's their best sales quarter(s)
        out of the year? 3) Do you remember when the stock
        splitted, and how often (or usually at what price) does the
        stock split at? 4) Who're SUIT's major competitors?
        Thank you in advance for your reply.

      • Well, OK, there's at least SOME good to being a
        weenie. When I checked earlier about jumping back in, the
        price was in the low 30's, and was at the high for the
        day. While mulling it over, I saw why the real idiots
        lose in the market. Buying high would have left me in
        the lurch. Fortunately, I didn't jump, and the price
        dropped back to 28 1/2 around the close (sorry longs).
        While this makes my mouth water over the opportunity,
        this behaviour is what spooked me out in the first
        place. Why is it that this stock just can't seem to hold
        on whenever it climbs? NOW I'm worried that the
        market drop that WE HAVE TO SEE in the next few days
        will bring SUIT right back down into the 23-25 range
        where this all started. If it does, then I'm in. But
        what if I jump in at 28 or 29 and it backslides? The
        only thing that I saw that I liked today was that the
        volume was HUGE compared to what I saw last week. I just
        don't know if that's signalling a shelf or a top. On
        the whole, 350,000 shares and down 3/8 tells me
        nothing but bad. But, I've been watching it now for
        months and it seems to be on a steady trend up. Just
        wish it wasn't so jumpy in getting there. Oh well,
        thanks for listening to my prattle, I'll let everyone
        know when I'm back in, and then I'll REALLY be a
        nervous Nellie. My apologies if it's bugging anyone. Best
        of luck to all, Nuke

 
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