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The Men's Wearhouse, Inc. Message Board

  • Adam__e Adam__e Feb 2, 1999 4:33 PM Flag

    Typical

    Wouldn�t it be typical of SUIT to have great earnings and drop 5 points.


    -Adam

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    • Thanks for not trashing me in your previous post.
      Just for the record...I'm not anti-SUIT. I think it's
      a great company and is headed on to better and
      bigger things. I also am not claiming to have any solid
      knowledge, or even hunches on the stock's direction. While I
      may have been right, as you say, in the short run; it
      is purely luck...and fear...not any sort of skill. I
      was just AFRAID that it would fall back. Not sure of
      it by any means. What is more, I missed out on an
      opportunity to bail out at 34 1/2 instead of in the 32's. All
      told, I'm not so certain that I did the right thing. If
      I can get back in again significantly below where I
      got out, I will. If not, then (hopefully) I'll have
      learned better for next time. I pulled this same move
      (again based simply on observation and fear) a month or
      two back; bailing out only to be heckled by the
      loyalists here. Watched the stock drop well over 10% of
      it's value before I got back in again. While I don't
      reccomend it for everyone, and I certainly don't have the
      savvy to do it on a daily or even weekly basis as these
      "day traders" do, I do sometimes utilize this approach
      in order to lock in any gains I may have made. So
      far, it's worked quite well. Best of luck to all, Nuke

    • Adam;
      Couldn't watch the market today, so I
      missed our meteoric rise to 33 1/4. I've been sitting on
      this stock for the better part of about 8 months now.
      Problem is...EXACTLY what you said in your previous post.
      I want to hold out for an even bigger gain, and I
      DO believe in the company (see my multiple posts
      over the past several months). HOWEVER, I got burned
      by just what you say exactly one month ago. Waited
      for earnings, price rose during the week leading up
      to the announcement. Read the earnings release with
      a smile on my face as same-store sales were up,
      revenues jumped over 13%, net profit was up, etc. All
      excellent...right? WRONG! The damned stock dropped 10% right out of
      the gate as soon as the bell died down after the
      release. Now, a month later, I'm afraid that we might see
      another repeat performance. What do the rest of you folks
      think? Will SUIT pull the same trick it's displayed the
      last 3 or 4 months on the day after earnings? Should I
      bail now (or SHOULD I have today if I'd only been able
      to watch). Should I hold and ride the wave into the
      40's? My gut is telling me that numbers like these (32
      to 33 only seem to come along once in a very rare
      while...maybe I should bail tomorrow or Thursday ahead of the
      annoncement). I'd LOVE to be able to jump out now, then hop
      back in when it falls back down to 27 or 28 like I'm
      ALMOST certain that it will. Problem is, I'm a WUSS, and
      am afraid that if I do that that I'll miss the boat.
      Been burned by this damnable thing before, but maybe
      this time will be different. Sure looks like it was
      strong today in a down market. Are we expecting some
      kind of explosive earnings surprise? I actually think
      that I might be more comfortable staying on board if
      this thing WASN'T shooting up so quickly. Heck, only
      two days ago it was having trouble holding 29 1/4.
      last week I saw it down in the 28's. Will the yo-yo
      behaviour continue? The market right now seems primed for
      another considerable drop. OK, sorry, I'm
      rambling...somebody talk me down...PLEASE. I've just been burned by
      this same damn scenario with this same damn stock too
      many times before. I'll shut up. Seriously though,
      (and PLEASE don't accuse me of being short, I'm NOT,
      I'm long, and numerous past posts illustrate it) two
      things really do worry me in addition to SUIT's past
      behaviour and the current market. First of all, I've been
      holding both TJX and ANN in addition to SUIT ever since
      the big market drop last August. While I know that
      neither company compares identically as far as
      situations, I can't help but notice that both have pulled
      back a good bit recently with the market and we're
      even 4 points of share price HIGHER than TJX. That has
      been completely the inverse for 6 months now, and
      while I know that SUIT is doing well, it does seem a
      bit odd and scary. The other concern of mine is our
      P/E. I know that the die-hards will tell me that it
      just doesn't matter, but as we're now at something
      like a 32 multiple of price to earnings and are not
      involved in the internet (as near as I can tell) I wonder
      if this is sustainable too. All thoughts and
      positions are welcome in response to this post. I want the
      bad along with the good. I seem to rapidly transform
      into nervous Nellie almost every month around this
      time as any long term holders will attest. I truly am
      considering selling tomorrow just to guarantee the coin, but
      fret not. I'll make my own decision, and will be back
      to eat crow if I'm the bonehead (it's happened
      before, check the back posts). Best of luck to all. Once
      bitten....................................Nuke

      • 3 Replies to nuke___
      • This business of hopping in and out of SUIT on
        price movement speculation sounds more to me like
        gambling than investing. I say that SUIT has proven itself
        to be a great long-term investment, and I recommend
        that you manage it as such.

        Here's my advice.
        Determine what percentage of your portfolio do you want to
        consist of SUIT, be it 5%, 10%, 20%, or whatever. Then,
        when your portfolio becomes overweighted in SUIT, due
        to a price runup like we've seen over the past
        couple of days, sell enough of your shares to bring your
        position back down to its target allocation. Assuming the
        price drops back after your sale and your position
        becomes underweighted, buy enough shares to bring your
        position back up to its target allocation. This approach
        will allow you to take advantage of large price swings
        while maintaining a long position.

        Best of luck
        to you, whatever you decide. I say that if the
        insiders are dumb enough to dump their shares of SUIT when
        the company is performing so well, we should take
        advantage of their stupidity by buying their shares at
        discount prices. Do the opposite of what the price movers
        are doing. If they're selling, buy. If they're
        buying, sell. However, if you agree that SUIT has strong
        long-term growth potential, don't cash out ALL of your
        shares, but just enough to maintain your allocation
        target.

      • Nuke, I agree with the previous posts in that you
        could have made alot of money by buying on the dips and
        selling on the crests and doing the whole thing over and
        over (I know I did and although I have a few hundred
        shares that I hold long, I've made alot more by rolling
        this stock). The general trend is that this stock is
        rising and will continue to climb if you are interested
        in the long position. Second, I too have been
        frustrated with my long position because the stock has
        performed so well in the past few years and I just expected
        it to continue without any pauses (wrong!). But,
        once again, I made lots by rolling the stock. Now here
        we are on the eve of a fourth quarter earnings
        report and soon an annual report. I say hold your stock
        for one reason, When the annual earnings come out,
        the P/E will adjust downward (at least if the
        earnings are better then last year) and as a result the
        price will adjust upward to reestablish the P/E to
        around 30-35. Thus, the price will climb (my opinion
        only but you have to look at the history). One other
        thing, someone also pointed out in an earlier post that
        historically, Suit is weakest right before and after Christmas.
        We are on the downhill side of that period and the
        stock will begin to move. I guarantee it (like that
        means anything). Good luck Nuke, don't give up and hold
        the stock for now. Roll it later if you are so
        inclined.

      • Haven't you noticed the pattern that your seeing?
        This tells you that there are insiders cashing in on
        the good news and then cashing out when it hits near
        its high just before the numbers are released. That
        is why the numbers crash after the good news because
        the insiders are taking their quick profits causing
        it to fall on good news. Maybe you should do the
        same? Just think of instead sitting and waiting and
        cash out at the high, you could buy in the low and
        cash out at every peak of the wave. Just look at the
        charts and see how much more you could make.

 
MW
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