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SandRidge Permian Trust Message Board

  • sjsrhs sjsrhs Feb 27, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

    Learn from your mistake here

    when ever you see a slow bone crunching decline sell and run. The whole slow grind lower is designed to keep you buying and give you hope. Hope is the biggest losing trade in the World.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I agree that this has been in a downtrend since last year. However, the only way to salvage a position like this is to trade the bounces. from the charts, it looks like it bottoms about one month after the distribution and then bounces off the bottom of the channel. The RSI is now oversold but could still become more oversold. I will look to add if it falls out of the bottom of the channel . There will be considerable resistance to overcome on the bounce so I wouldn't stay too long on a bounce. It did move 4 points in the last move running into the divy announcement which was greater than the annual dividend.

      • 1 Reply to marklibera
      • I would agree with you on this one, but what I'm seeing is that PER is almost purely trading in line with SD unfortunately. As a long PER investor, my primary concern clearly is that SD files in the near/intermediate term and then PER doesn't have sufficient funding to drill out the rest of it's wells. However, because of this recent sale by SD, looks like they will be a going concern at least through 2014, which by my calculations is when PER should have all 1,405 wells drilled, ahead of the 2016 deadline which is a clear positive. After all of the wells are drilled distribnutions should peak in Q414 and begin trending down from there until 2031. Aside from the risk of crude oil price declines, I think one of the biggest uncertainties with respect to SD is MS lime drilling, which could potentially turn out much worse than expected, an investors will continue to hammer SD and PER (unfortunately as a result). Good thing is, as long as wells continue to get drilled and production stays healthy, we should be ok on the distribution front and PER's price should recover.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
PER
6.91-0.06(-0.87%)Aug 3 4:02 PMEDT