Not right now, but it depends how far out you are looking. OK for the next few years until the hedges start expiring. Let's say that the US gets a decent energy policy in place and oil production surges. We could be looking at peak prices of $75 (or less?) in 3-4 years vs current peaks in the $100 area. This wouldn't be good for PER and the E&P group.
I know at some price production would slow because the economics of the biz would just make it not worthwhile, similar to what natgas went through. All this just my speculation.
An analyst on CNBC this morning predicted oil continuing it's current downtrend to $77, based on historical performance at this time of year. If that happens, then PER will follow that trend. However, it will use any pause in trend to go higher into the distribution, but may not go above $15 during this cycle. If oil does go below $80, then PER could go into the high single digits, especially after the next distribution. At that point ($8-9), it would be a screaming buy. Sentiment: Strong Buy at the bottom.
With all due respect, the performance after ex-div will be mainly determined by the div. amount.
If it exceeds 60-65c, PER will not fall below 14 (unless we have new 2008-9). Under the same assumption I expect 14-50 to 15-00 by May 01, and then either back to 14 by May 12 (in case div is 55-60), or towards 16-50 to 17 if div is in the range 60 to 70 (which is more probable considering MVO and BPT performance, and oil prices in Oct-Dec versus Jan-March). Time will show..
PER is priced for close to flat $80 oil (aka, the back of the nymex strip) and a 10% yield - its a decent pps to begin to accumulate unless you have your view. That said, there is nothing better than getting it cheaper!
Yes, PER would make more money receiving $100 for oil than $75. If you expect $75 oil you would wait or short. I expect higher prices and have been a big buyer of PER as its value should increase as oil prices do. PER is priced already for $40 oil!
Russia, Canada oil sands and lots of other producers can't make money at $75 and the Saudis would cut production. China could crash and oil could hit $75 but it wont stay there IMO. War with China in one of those little islands, or Iran, or spreading conflict from Syria to Jordan or Turkey and you have $175 oil which is much more likely IMO.