with the exception of two quarters...every quarter where imh has made money it hasn't been good enough for the market....doesn't seem like the market is happy unlesswe are constantly making .50 or more per share
I have concluded the market wants to see a sustainable business model. The problem is that mortgage companies built on refinancing booms don't last. The refinance volumes can drop to zero quickly, which makes projecting forward cash flows nearly impossible. That's why these companies can sell at 4 to 7 times earnings, which appears to be a bargain, but is not a bargain if the refinance volumes fall.
What I don't understand yet is how much the warehouse lending can overcome decline in originations and refinance.
It seems as if this was a pretty good quarter when you strip out the Long Term Port loss. Management may actually be doing a decent job but their communication abilities are unbelievably poor -- they seem flip and disorganized and we only get to hear from them once per quarter. The macro should be OK now but anybody's guess. My take is that the data is not good and August could be worse. Jobs are weak and with it bond yields should stay stable or perhaps backtrack. IMH needs time at prevailing mortgage conditions to build out the business transition and housing needs to slow down anyway a bit. It looks like IMH investors will need more patience before we see upward price action but they are going to follow revenues. IMH has to try to grow or this thing will shrivel up.