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National Western Life Group, Inc. Message Board

  • abcde_98 abcde_98 Feb 24, 2009 12:25 PM Flag

    Where are we now?

    Stock price is a lot lower vs 3-4 months ago.

    Earnings/futire outlook will be interesting to hear.

    What is the rate of policy cancellation in Q4? and any insight about Q1 2009?

    Do they have those negative cost MVA issues when policyholders cancel their annuity policies? See FFG's comments from their report.

    If I needed some cash, and if I knew my policy could be cancelled with no cancellation cost, it would definitely be something I would consider doing.

    Stock prices of many insurers have continued to go lower, even if they don;t sell those variable annuities, or without too much investment losses. This one looks to drop more. The economy isn't fixed overnight or in 1 or 2 years when you've had 5-6 years of low rates and boom times fuelled by debt. See NYU Stern school Dr. Doom's comments.

    Also, this stock is too illiquid, and can drop $10 to $15 in one day.

    To generate some interest of potential investors maybe they ought to do a 5 for 1 split.

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    • the unemployment report from Feb 6 was worse than expected and the market rallied hard that day.

      the market is probably pricing in a very bad report, so anything horrible market will rally.

      it would have to be something really really really bad i think. also initial claims 2 days ago were better than expected.. that could be a clue to tomorows report that things are not that bad.

    • 1. cnbc says what? lol. insurance companies are not levered 10 times.
      2. "What is the value of something like an illiquid bond.." what do you consider an illiquid bond? Is a corp bond illiquid? More hype than reality imo.
      3.They will report results soon. Probably be a non-event.
      4.Institutions are more knowledgeable? what if it is forced selling?

      Unemployment numbers.
      GM on the brink of bankruptcy again. How many companies and how many times do citizens have to bail out loser industries?"

      Unemployment number are terrible if you did any research you would have seen adp reported weak numbers ALREADY! Old news..


      Gm has been bankrupt for a long time. WHAT'S THE f%$#@ SURPRISE.
      The best thing for GM is BANKRUPTCY!
      Your statements are useless.

    • very simple indeed,

      1). CNBC mentioned today that insurance companies are the next 'banks'. Indeed they might be.

      2). Insurance company asset values are being called into question. What is the value of something like an illiquid bond when there are few buyers?

      3). They will report results soon.

      4). Somebody wants out. Institutions are typically more knowledgeable maybe they want out.

      Unemployment numbers.
      GM on the brink of bankruptcy again. How many companies and how many times do citizens have to bail out loser industries?

      MC Hammer "can't touch this"

    • very simple.

      look at all the life insurance stocks today. they all got taken to the woodshed along with financials.

      NWLI is the best of breed and its the one to buy. its down 30% in 3 days. so a 15% bounce is likely even if market bounces only modestly.

    • Very illiqued stock as well, so gets pushed around pretty esaily by a seller or buyer.

    • Take a look at the documents on their web site

      The Moody's who own this also own American National (ANAT) which has been paying dividends for 100 years. They manage conservatively and are not risk takers.

    • what do you mean by conservative?
      Many of the insurance cos. said they were conservative and they have some bigger losses in commercial RE or some cmbs's. The only isurers I see at .20 of bv are the real troubled ones.

    • Yes. And very conservatively run. Could be just someone trying to get out and no buyers.

    • I think they should initiate a quarterly dividend and/or buy back shares to provide some liquidity. Even if you lop off $25 from book it's still selling at 40% of book value.

      • 1 Reply to CASHWINK
      • Most life insurers are selling at .20 to .50 of Book Value.

        Buying back tock actually reduces the number of shares, so it doesn't help in making more shares available, it actually makes it LESS liquid.

        I'd really prefer a 10:1 stock split, but institutions may not like the stock price that low, so 5:1 is at least somewhere inbetween.

        Buying 25 or 50 shares of GOOG or BIDU ($300 and $100 type stocks) is ok because there is some liquidity. With illiquid stocks like this, you miggt cause an insurance claim waiting for it to do something. zzzz

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