The following are notes to the 3/30/12 show from a cyber friend. I would think NWLI would certainly fit in here. ANAT is a company that also has Robert L. Moody as their CEO and COB.
>>American National Insurance ANAT 0.5 times Book. Their returns have stayed low although they have been improving for a couple of years. I’m not sure why this is at such a big discount to book. 10 times earnings. Average price to book for life insurance companies is 0.7. A little light on margins. No analysts cover it. Prudential Financial, Allstate trade near near book. 4.2% div. yield. Stock has severely underperformed. Flat sales for last five years. Paid down their debt. Margins consistent.<<
my impression is that he wants a slightly better price than the current 135-140.
this always takes time especially with controlled companies. but another one of my names USLM has now bought back 14% of the float over the past 6 months with their excess cash. it's a great management team in a great (unlike NWLI) business and they finally did some good things for shareholders (in addition to doing a great job on the business, just like NWLI).
so, i think at 160 they probably could get 10% of the shares done easy and it's very accretive for both the family and us shareholders who want to stay for the long term.
nwli isn't pricing in any shareholder friendly actions at all. not even close.
let's see what management does this year. there are several sellers that i know of so a tender would be a great idea. i doubt anyone here would tender but a 100k plus shareholder would from what i hear.
Haven't looked recently, but had a fairly large pension funding deficit a few years ago, whereas NWLI does not.
The P&C companies have mostly already had a good move - I would look at Loews (L) now for P&C exposure. They do have multiple pieces, but the 2 big ones are CNA Insurance (CNA) and Diamond Offshore (DO), both are cheap and you get a double discount as L is at 80% of book and CNA is at 65% of book.
L is conservatively managed, value oriented and (unlike NWLI) care about their stock price and do things to optimize value for shareholders.