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CIFC Corp. Message Board

  • nomindnow nomindnow Aug 13, 2009 12:08 PM Flag

    DFR Question

    I've been following DFR for a few months (my son bought a few shares). I'm having a difficult time figuring out what's going on with this company. Huge fall from highs,reverse split, huge earning loss per/share. What is the upside here? Would someone knowledgeable about DFR be kind enough to fill me in? Thanks.

    NMN

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    • The upside is the possibility of recovery.

      If you haven't been following REITs, specifically mortgage REITs, the credit market freeze-up, and all the associated problems of the sector in general, then it's pretty hard to get the context of this specific stock.

      • 1 Reply to takes2serious
      • This stock is no longer a REIT in fact they signed an agreement with their creditors NOT to pay dividends until 2012. They are now a fixed income asset manager with approximately $9.9 billion of assets under management bringing in about 5 mil a qrt in fees, giving them an eps of about 75 cents per qrt. $2.80 a year times 20 is almost $60. The next Earnings call will be interesting because it will be the first qrt they are totaly divested from the Market Square CLO. I suggest reading the last 2 earnings call transcripts. I believe the eps which was 82 cents last qrt will come in a little lower this qrt due to the MS CLO divestiture but will still be in the high .60s once the market regains confidence in DFRs new business model and believes the 5 mil a qrt in fees are stable the pps will rise to a 15 -20 multiple. It will probably bump to the mid teens after the next earnings call in Nov and then to the twenties early next year. There are Zero analysts following this stock as observed from the conference calls. and it is a micro cap with no listed options.

 
CIFC
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