Expectation are low, if NOK does not burn a ton of cash we go back over $3 and sit and wait on Q1 2013 sales #'s. The stock will move between $3 and $3.70 until we see sales numbers in Q1. When those #'s coming in,you better have a tight stop limit just in case. We could be back around $5.50 next summer Q2 2013 waiting on the 3rd release for Lumina line up. Of course toss in a tablet before 2012 is over and we might see this stock move faster (potentially closer to $4). Asha line could up this stock on Oct 18th, but everyone will focus on the cash. If Nokia burns through to much cash, we sit around $2 until those sales numbers come in after holidays. Now is the time to go long because there is little if any downside from here. Buy at $2.80 and set a $2 stop loss. What do you have to lose buy .8, but you can gain much more if you are a long term holder of this stock.
Yes, by design. I think my downside estimate of $ 2 is accurate. The upside is conservative, but that allows for safe exit. I would obviously adjust based on future news (facts not rumor) on earnings and cost reductions.
There are a few game changers out there that could blow holes in this theory, but pretty sound in general. Analysis Paralysis! Most people are taking extreme positions and usually they investors run when they make tiny profit or see a loss coming. I am long until first sales number in March 2013.