Let's suppose for a moment, that Nokia get's it right going forward and hits a big home run, and given the fact that Apple has stumbled with this iPhone 5 release. If once the Lumia actually gets out there and the pundits are taken by surprise and the new Nokia phones do have really good sales, what is not an outrageous price that Nokia stock might rise to? Understand that there will be bashers but there was a time not too long ago that Apple was on the ropes. So your thoughts whatever they might be are welcome on this thread.
In a perfect/ reasonable scenario, the stock could climb to around $5 over next 12 months. That assumes your hypothesis. That is assuming earnings start heading in the other direction and revenue losses stop. That is further away then you think. The odds of a pop to $8 or higher would make Nokia one of the rarest comeback ever. The problem is none of the hallmarks of that happening are present. I don't think minus massive cash burn this quarter that we see the price leave the $2.25 to $2.75 range. You might just be seeing the new normal for nokia.
In reality, valuation often has little to do with share price. Potential for price appreciation is what determines share price. We have all seen stocks skyrocket without regard for value. It's their perceived potential that is responsible. Nokia has to change its "persona" much like Apple had to do before the iPod. All it takes is one innovation and it doesn't have to be a phone. That will come this spring. That's where price the appreciation will come from. The perception of Nokia will change and they will be seen as an innovator again. Investors will see "Potential".
It will depend on developments and market share going forward. The only thing I know for sure the "smart phone" age will replace the desktop. If the recorded music industry is any sort of guide, new formats starting with the 78 rpm to 33 rpm to CD to digital storage all are around 20 year cycles, we are just on a new super cycle based on wireless small form cloud based high speed computing. Desktops are going to sink into the little used specialty market and wireless portable computing will dominate for many many years. Today we are on the first couple of steps on a very long marathon. If NOK can keep itself in business over the next year, bring out new inovations and gain world market share there is no way to predict what the share price will be in 10 to 20 years. Certainly 100s of times what it is now. Of course that's allowing for inflation and the absence of a World War.
I love guys like piranhacat. Oh my, you know nothing about valuation. How do you pull $37 out of the air like that. Even if Patents were sold for 10 bIllion, NSN spun off for 5 billion in savings and Nateque was sold at a profit of 10 billion, would we see $10. You want to toss $37 out there. Bless you, I hope you have tons of money, you are going to need it.
Given that Lumia is gaining market share Q/Q by 5% & other 2 division with both 1.5% growth?
2Q 2013 Approx $7.00 with anticipated growth approx. $9.00 (priced in)
YE 2013 Approx $10.00 with anticipated growth approx. $15.00 (priced in)
Full adatation of W8 & continued innovation coupled with DJI flying to 16,000
2Q 2014 Approx $15.00 with anticipated growth approx. $00.00 (priced in)
YE 2014 Approx $00.00 with anticipated growth approx. $00.00 (priced in)