Actually you may be right, just not today. I happen to think the stock has an upside of perhaps $4 to $5 over the next two years and a downside to perhaps $2. Why so modest on the upside? This is not Apple inventing the future and all that went with it, this is basic blocking and tackling and if they get it right, they will see modest gains in the intermediate term, hence $1 or $2 dollars on the upside. $2.00? Well the patents offer some level of protection, they do throw off cash. And the map business is attractive, expensive yes, but attractive and other parts of Nokia look all right.
So, in the next few moths, the success or lack thereof of the Lumia line will tell the story. Small changes in the price dramatically alter the risk:reward. For instance if you accept my scenario, at $2.50, the ratio goes to 3:1 in favor of purchase. So, wait and see.
Sentiment: Buy