Price Predication based on possible Nokia Lumia Sale in Nov-Dec 2012
They have little less than 2 month for sale (Although biggest selling season) so here is what I think.
Less than 4M - Go back to $2. Only hope is buyout.
5 Million+ Lumia line- Price Stay around 3 may be 4.
7 Million+ - Easy to go above 4
8-9 Milliion+- Easy to go above 4.5
9-10 million -Easy to go $5-6 range
10+ - Sky is limit. (May be $8-10 atleast) - It's clear confirmation that Nok will remain major player and Windows 8 has bigger role to play (Assuming about 4-5M+ other win8 phone sale, it taking about 8% market share- Significant & easy to land at no.3)
I expect 8+ may be around 10 but it also depend on what supply Nokia build out given low sale last time they may be more causious.
My only concern is with supply (Unlikely given aggresive pricing which make it easy to sale).
An article by Citigroup on the 14 Nov reported theirs checks confirmed much stronger than expected sales of the Lumia 920. Wonder what they mean by much stronger than expected . What were they expecting ? Ballmer confidently stated that Windows Phone 8 sales will ramp up very quickly. From what we can see, the big boys and not Nokia is in the driver seat now. Yes it is the software, but most will be taking NOKIA anyway when it comes to Windows 8 phone.
I agree, except you are getting a tad aggressive with over 10million.
8 million is the key to the stock getting close to $5 a share. Momentum might take it beyond that. 8 million will guarantee Nokia a chance to release another phone next year and really complete their turn around.