I am an institutional trader, let me tell you what is going to happen in last thirty minutes.
Thanks man. You really sound like the real deal. It's nice to have real traders and pros on here, way too many phonies. Hope to have you here longer term. I'm long jan $3.50 calls and April $5 calls. Thinking of selling the ITM jan $3.50 calls in case any bad news comes out before earnings, there's only 2 weeks left on those options and I don't want to lose money in the hand.
Any advice would be much appreciated.
Right now I feel the pps will keep moving higher until earnings in speculation, shorts not wanting to get caught in case earnings are a blowout, sales leaks out of china which should come by Monday or Tuesday, and if course the January effect. These are all positives which will help me as the pps moves higher. What I'm worried about is hit pieces by dirty wall streeters as they try to keep the pps lower so they can cover or accumulate more before the CC.
First of all thanks for your comments, so I will try my best to reply.
You are actually a very good speculator/trader.
Optionwise your position looks very good too me. 3.5 call sure end ITM unless a real bad earning report from NOKIA and implied volatility for your Apr call may spike after Jan earnings and your 5 call may worth something after all. If I were you, I may consider add more Nokia and sell covered $5/$4.5 calls for any maturity -- considering you are long Nokia -- of course that will be more aggressive -- but still with protections as the yield is still there. but selling 3.5 call isn't a bad idea after all. you may also consider to take advantage of implied volatility for some calender spread trades --- as it seems your cash is pretty abundant.
Example, I was very bullish on BAC and you know BAC is kind of slow. So I just buy BAC and write calls for each month and each week. It generates very good results and most of time I am still holding my BAC shares without getting called. Many traders do that with SPY, too.
Also about calls/puts, you know the biggest writers for calls and puts are institutions so it IS true sometimes the equity will end to kills both calls and puts, which will be the best scenario for institutions. I know this is the picture but I dun really do option trades so I can't tell you the detailed story.
For your last paragraph, your feeling is actually right, but you are a little bit too optimistic about NOK sales --- I mean I am not bearish, but its sales can be good or bad --- as its supply problems still exist. What I am sure is that NOK IS enjoying some high demand --- but you have to moneytize that demand otherwise it is pointless.
I have data with detailed institutional holdings. What I can say about LONG/SHORT is that it is gonna be ugly for one side. Shorts in Europe are accumulating ( viking group and some others), and longs are sort of taking profit a bit, which may be dangerous for NOK shares unless it comes out with good news. Euro funds are actually shorting more NOK right now compared to less U.S shorts. I havn't checked data after xmas but before that U.S shorts are about 300-315 million out of 800 million ADR shares and Europe's short % is about 15% - 20%, which gives about 20-25% of total short % for Nok. I think as shorts still betting on some bad NOK performance, this battle gonna be pretty fierce and only NOK insiders know who gonna win.
Rational is simple -- a good NOK report and guidance may just kill the shorts and inflate the price.
I am neutral on NOK's Jan report but I am bullish on Nokia in longer term and I do believe it is a good chance to add if NOK fails on 24th Jan. But I hope NOK will be better than that.