NOK will move to 4.19 to 4.20 range at least as its fair value at its underlying market is at around 4.215 as of just now. And this is a market that shorts have to cautious, so they tend to cover some before the bell. They can't really afford to bet on Finland NOK to follow the U.S #$%$&p has rallied and Euro seems to hold some ground at its 1.30 and bounced to 1.31 area. NOK actually surprised me as it tanked during mid-day.
Good luck longs and Better luck shorts.
Thanks man. You really sound like the real deal. It's nice to have real traders and pros on here, way too many phonies. Hope to have you here longer term. I'm long jan $3.50 calls and April $5 calls. Thinking of selling the ITM jan $3.50 calls in case any bad news comes out before earnings, there's only 2 weeks left on those options and I don't want to lose money in the hand.
Any advice would be much appreciated.
Right now I feel the pps will keep moving higher until earnings in speculation, shorts not wanting to get caught in case earnings are a blowout, sales leaks out of china which should come by Monday or Tuesday, and if course the January effect. These are all positives which will help me as the pps moves higher. What I'm worried about is hit pieces by dirty wall streeters as they try to keep the pps lower so they can cover or accumulate more before the CC.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
First of all thanks for your comments, so I will try my best to reply.
You are actually a very good speculator/trader.
Optionwise your position looks very good too me. 3.5 call sure end ITM unless a real bad earning report from NOKIA and implied volatility for your Apr call may spike after Jan earnings and your 5 call may worth something after all. If I were you, I may consider add more Nokia and sell covered $5/$4.5 calls for any maturity -- considering you are long Nokia -- of course that will be more aggressive -- but still with protections as the yield is still there. but selling 3.5 call isn't a bad idea after all. you may also consider to take advantage of implied volatility for some calender spread trades --- as it seems your cash is pretty abundant.
Example, I was very bullish on BAC and you know BAC is kind of slow. So I just buy BAC and write calls for each month and each week. It generates very good results and most of time I am still holding my BAC shares without getting called. Many traders do that with SPY, too.
Also about calls/puts, you know the biggest writers for calls and puts are institutions so it IS true sometimes the equity will end to kills both calls and puts, which will be the best scenario for institutions. I know this is the picture but I dun really do option trades so I can't tell you the detailed story.
For your last paragraph, your feeling is actually right, but you are a little bit too optimistic about NOK sales --- I mean I am not bearish, but its sales can be good or bad --- as its supply problems still exist. What I am sure is that NOK IS enjoying some high demand --- but you have to moneytize that demand otherwise it is pointless.
I have data with detailed institutional holdings. What I can say about LONG/SHORT is that it is gonna be ugly for one side. Shorts in Europe are accumulating ( viking group and some others), and longs are sort of taking profit a bit, which may be dangerous for NOK shares unless it comes out with good news. Euro funds are actually shorting more NOK right now compared to less U.S shorts. I havn't checked data after xmas but before that U.S shorts are about 300-315 million out of 800 million ADR shares and Europe's short % is about 15% - 20%, which gives about 20-25% of total short % for Nok. I think as shorts still betting on some bad NOK performance, this battle gonna be pretty fierce and only NOK insiders know who gonna win.
Rational is simple -- a good NOK report and guidance may just kill the shorts and inflate the price.
I am neutral on NOK's Jan report but I am bullish on Nokia in longer term and I do believe it is a good chance to add if NOK fails on 24th Jan. But I hope NOK will be better than that.
What your not taking into account is our market is heavily manipulated by "institutions " as pnews is the deciding factor on this stock right now and there isnt any but the paid analysts and cramers paid by "institutions"talking bad to get it as low as possible before earnings come out and it goes throgh the roof well as friday shorts cover.. such low volume gets this stock to close at 4.16 now get back to your desk trader and do what cramer tells you
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Closed at 4.18. A little surprising for me but it is less than 1% discount --- so still normal. you can see the final one minute the volume spiked --- because many ADR arbitragers just buy at close to avoid risks and reap that seemingly probable 1% low-risk arbitrage -- it has some risk of course but it is minimal if no NOK bad news -- they just have to cover position at finland opening.
If it closes at 4.15 then it will be really weird because NOK arbitrage is rarely more than 1.5% because it is very liquid especially in finland (its minimum spread is 0.00X even without dealers and market makers). If that is the case then longs have to be cautious because it will be like "maybe some one got the bad news ahead" or "shorts are that strong?"
Happy weekend and good luck.
It is a game, do you really put that much faith in a few thousand shares traded AH when 30+ million get traded daily? I would give it to you if it was millions of shares traded AH.
Also AH is not done, I see AH still closing at 4.19+
Have a great weekend all.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I was thinking 4.22 but in reality you are probably right. Thoughts on next week or going into Jan 24?
My guess, and yes it is a complete guess, is that we go to 4.90 or higher right to the last hour of trading before earnings and then drop. Then it will all depend on earnings.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I do not know about future. Pattern looks good to me but I will be cautious at 4.4 area since it is the gap price. It may fill the gap and it may not. It really depends.
You are right on 4.22, it is its fair value -- As the underlying NOK1V = NOK ADR (1 for 1) --- Maths is simple --- 3.224*1.308 = 4.217. But sometimes they will have some gaps ( which create jobs for ADR arbitrage traders --- yes some of them do live arbitrage, but almost everyone does non-live arbitrage, too -- which is not exactly arbitrage but involves some direction trades, like this current situation. If I were at the trading desk now I would but NOK and rational is simple, it is at one percent discount; currency risk is low; S&P rallied after Europe closed.
I liked everything you have said, except shorts are going to lose this one in the end. Nokia has many positive factors, and the price should explode upwards depending on Q4 results. It's still trading below it's legitimate value...