I came up with below estimates for Q4 after some research i did. references are nokiapoweruser, other articles and analysts and Q3 earning results: Let me know what you guys think ?.
1-Nokia Siemens networks turned profitable last quarter and growing. Let's assume net sales are same as previous Q3 with 3.5 billion euros
2-Location and commerce: I'll use net sales of 0.2 billion euro (same as previous Q3 with 265 million euro)
3- Now the bump this quarter will come from Devices and services. In Q3, Nokia sold 2.9 million Smart phone with net sale of around 976 million euro. Based on articles I've been following, nokiapoweruser etc.. Nokia should have sold 9.8 million smart phone, so let's say net sales would be 3 times last quarter 3 net sales around (3x976) 2.7 billion. I'll assume mobile net sales was the same as Q3 = 2.3 billion euro.
let's use 200 million euro for smart and mobile device ASP same as Q3.
Total from #3 = 2.7 + 2.3 + 0.2 = 5.2 billion euro
Total net sale for Q4 from above would be 3.5 + 0.2 + 5.2 = 8.9 billion euro = 11.6 billion USD
2012 Q4 average estimates is 9.99 billion USD, high estimate is 11 billion. Nokia crushes estimates and we go to da moon.
Nokia is estimated to lose 0.06, that is not much. I think they made that estimation before the success of the Lumia so I believe they may turn a profit or at least beat. I feel pretty strongly about that especially after the 2 days of bashing/sell off. A good earnings number will probably take NOK up to about 4.36-4.50. Of course it is all speculation