Nokia Corporation Message Board
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Here is why MSFT takes out NOK for at least 6.5-7pps range
NOK-Long-friends: If you read a dozen posts here tonight, let
this be at least one of them... it will be time worth spent.
Disclaimer: I've no inside knowledge as to what is going on
near Helsinki or Redmond currently. The following is my pure
speculation, based on my analysis, logic and extrapolation of
historical events. Please do your thorough DD of course.
Today NOK pps/vol action issued a generational-bottom range-
breakout signal in my models and gave the ultimate-go-ahead to
the potential- would-be-acquirer, that their deal would be
immediately accretive to their bottom line. 500%-volume rise
does not happen by mere chance or by one PR event. The dynamics
for a superb rise ahead were well entrenched in the past six
month's fundamentals. Now its all clear, green-signal for MSFT
to make a move and spread their connectivity-ambitions and
empire worldwide.
In my recent Europe and Asia visits, what I found out on the
ground-floor is so important, yet no one mentions it much in
the US: The market for the cheaper and MSFT-related
smartphones and familiar Nokia brand over there, is generally
estimated to be 2-times the present volume, in the next of
couple years. That number is too low and off by at-least 75%
IMHO: head-of-the household keeps (and can afford) only 1
super-costly IPhone around, but many nokias linger around the
rest of the family members. The ratio is 1 to 4 in reality and
is only going to increase as the middle-class mushrooms and the
prosperity level rises in China and India. With the AAPL's
closed-OS (and App- Store) model, they would prefer open MSFT-
NOK model any day, especially when the functionality-delta is
decreasing and nokias' are so cheap.
W.r.t. buyout: Note what a premium MSFT gave to Skype. Do you
think that with the prospect of 3B humanity connection in the
next 5 years with NOK, MSFT would let them be independent
merely for 20B chump-change? No way in the world IMHO. Now,
all the big-boys will load-up first, and when the pps is around
5.50 they'll upgrade it. MSFT boys know this, that longer they
wait now, more they'll have to fish-out to sweeten the offer
for all shareholders. Hence, it's in their best interests to
make a quick move. See this happen much sooner than any of us
can imagine. Today was the first signal. Enjoy the beautiful
ramp-up ahead! Please give your thumbs-up if you agree with the
above sentiments. Thanks in advance.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Looks to me like some deal is definitely intact here ... if Huawei does not take out NOK, MSFT would around 7. But lets say a third-bidder now mysteriously emerges and ready for 6, then MSFT would have to up the ante, and take out NOK around 8-9 then! JMHO!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- 1 Reply to n59218
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Buy-in at $8 10-25%. That's how it will happen IMO. 4X normal volume today. Huawei is a smokescreen IMO. More going on in the background. NOK and MSFT working closer together. MSFT no longer uses HTC for ads, NOK won that battle, and NOK trouncing HTC in courts. So $8B cash investment in NOK at $8/share for 20% of the company. That's a start. Then as NOK price rises a few bucks, MSFT will have made all of it's investment up just in NOK stock price. NOK has the brand presence that MSFT needs and craves. NOKIA= the Apple of the world.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Now, it definitely looks like, even without the MSFT take-out, we reach $6 levels ourselves by August! Cheers.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Even at the rate of 1 penny rise a day, we almost double in a year ... good enough for me. But hey, it rose by 8 cents today ... that's eight times better! :-) Strongest possible buy at this juncture .. trend-reversal is confirmed ... lower-float is all in strong-hands!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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The 3.25 bottom-fishing started looking great now ... we'll be over $6 in May on our own! The expected NOK-climb is about to start in earnest!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Looks like this is going towards $5 pps before earnings, on its own first! Thanks for 67 recos my NOK-long friends!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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all sounds good to me.. although I remember not to long ago Nokia price went up 20 cents in one day I think it was 350 to 370 then right back down again.. but for some reason this feels a little different
seems to be a little more resistance on the down side I should say support
don't forget money managers make money when a stock goes up as wellSentiment: Strong Buy
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So it is written, so it will be done! Amen! Believe in your original decision, believe in Nokia! The super-star of relative strength past couple of days! Thanks for 60 recos here my long-NOK friends!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- 2 Replies to n59218
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This move was in the planning from the inception and is the real reason why ELOP made the switch. Microsoft made a strategic decision to place Elop at the helm of NOKIA to sweeten the deal when the time is ripe which is now.
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When will it be done bro?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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This is the only way that Microsoft can answer Appl and Goog's aggressive moves.
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In my opinion Microsoft is not going to buy them until NSN is spun off reportedly. That has been attempted several times and NSN and their debt was not purchased. I agree in the price range areas. I think I posted19B range without NSN. Microsoft is not loose with their buying. Remember Yahoo. It is different this time as you could say that the buyout has already occurred years ago. I would hope that it would be 19 billion or above. Microsoft paid 8 billion for Skype. Unfortunately, the reality is they probably are hoping the stock goes into the 2's to make this purchase. They waited until Yahoo was at rock bottom. They waited until Dell reached rock bottom. Microsoft is patient and not in a hurry to do anything. They tested the combo rather than buying them when they were around $2.00 earlier. No one knew how successful it would be. It is possible Nokia will be worth too much to make a deal. It depends what happens to Nokia's stock between now and when NSN is either sold or not sold. Microsoft seems to keep the purchases under 10 billion which is a problem. It is not the best economic conditions still. It is very possible that NSN will not pay down their debt and not be sold next month. It is different this time because NSN has the China Mobile contract. Either way Nokia is fine. The stock could get to the same level as a buyout on better than expected earning also. The next three weeks are going to be very interesting.
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To be fair, I didn't read the whole thing but here are my thoughts on this subject.
1.) If you watch the Elop Interview from last week, you will be reminded how much Nokia is a Finland icon. The company has been around since the 19th century and I doubt the Feens (typo?) would easily approve the purchase.
2.) Nokia is synonymous with quality and has a long, well established brand. Microsoft does not, in the mobile space at least.
My vote is... they will never be acquired by Microsoft.Sentiment: Strong Buy
- 1 Reply to genuine_alpha
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I tend to agree but the Nokia brand is what they'd be buying so at least if they were acquired the Nokia brand legacy would live on in a billion or more hands.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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