I read this board everyday and see many pros and cons as why we will either move up or down. Let's all try to put our indifferences aside and come up with good factual information for each side that can help us all. This stock could very well have major repurcussions on many of our lives and although we throw our insults back and forth I hope it's all in good fun. I see there are still many negative opinions about Nokia and I'm just amazed how people can say anything negative about this stock so let's try to put a legimate list together as to why we think it will either go up or down that may just give us all some insight into others opinions, after all , we can all make mistakes and this one could be a very expensive one if you are on the wrong side of the trade. I'm going to list all the reasons why I think this stock will rise and others can add to it and someone can start a list why it will go down. Let's try to go about this without a bunch of insults and maybe do us all some good. I for one am pretty much all in on this stock and don't want to lose, maybe someone will enlighten me, I'm willing to take the chance to do this and maybe I'll become all the more wiser for it. Let's try. Here is a list of why I believe it will go up. Keep in mind I'm not a professional and only have a high school education, but I feel I have above average common sense. Here goes.
1.) Nokias' phones can compete with anyones, including Apple.
2.) Nokia has always had a good reputation for building quality products they just lacked innovation which is being turned around
3.) Nokia has good brand recognition, people have not forgot about Nokia and most have no problems buying a Nokia product if it's what they were looking for.
4.) This last quarters preliminary report didn't include guidance which should be good and they said they will beat expectations for quarter four of 2012.
5.) Three reasons that will push Nokia up, China Telecom, China Unicom, 360Buy, and India, none of which were included in last quarters sales.
6.) Making Nokia's phones available to other carriers besides AT&T in the U.S. will be big plus
7.) Lumia 920 wasn't even available for the whole quarter last quarter along with other models.
8.) Lumia 920 is still basically unheard of in the U.S. Once people see it, feel it and use it sales will increase along with other models, theres many qualifed people stating it's the best phone on the planet.
9.) Nokia's restructuring costs will be beneficial
10.) Many experts say that the mobile phone market will double by 2015 and Nokia will get their fair share or more.
11.) Between the many millions of subscribers on China's two largest telecoms, India, and the fact the whole market of mobile users will increase this bodes well for first quarter of 2013.
12.) The more people that hear of Nokias new models of phones the more that will benefit Nokia.
13.) Past fundamentals in this case mean nothing, that basic trend has now been reversed.
14.) How can they go down much from here after already stating they will beat estimates
I guess that's good enough for now, others can continue. What really gets my interest is the fact that there are well educated professionals with bad opinions and these people have been in the market a long time. I really want this to be educational as much as anything and not to just prove a point. Maybe we can show others how wrong some of these pro's opinions are and it's not best to listen to others. Let's try to do one thing on this board that's helpful in many ways. I don't usually do things like this but my curiousity has got the best of me and am interested how a seasoned professional can have such a negative opinion at this time. Someone can start the list regarding the reasons why Nokia will drop. Thank you to all those who participate.
Your no. 4 is very important. The guidance should be a real good one, going by the hints of the CEO
He said they are ramping up production to meet the demand, That tells, they will be selling a lot of 920s. The guidance might inclde future profits from recent contract wins of NSN Division.
What is the next big announcement we know is coming but is not being talked about?
It has already been confirmed.
It deals with one of the fastest growing markets.
I could keep giving hints but will just say it.
The Nokia Tablet.
I believe it is going to be another shakeup product but that opens up another long list of negative and positives.
Anyways, the new Nokia tablet hasn't got a lot of press but when it is official will light up the headlines. Personally I believe this will be one of the major announcements at the CC Jan 24.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm a charting enthusiast and I've tracked the daily gaps on a chart from 2010. There's seven big gaps. I bought 3k shares @ 3.59. I am very happy at this price break out in to and take the first gap. If price stays above this gap I will hope to stay long with most of my position. I hope you enjoy this chart at flickr if it will link... http://www.flickr.com/photos/27682549@N06/8372418590/
Sentiment: Strong Buy
1-Nokia depends on MS for OS.If MS does not move fast enough or does not innovate as google and Apple, it's a big negative and it does not matter how good Nokia products or it's own innovations are.
2-Cash is still king. We have yet to see Nokia cash on hand.If balance sheet improves stock really takes off,if balance sheet looks sick, it will be a drag on the stock because BK is still a concern.
3-Will consumers warm up to windows ecosystem.Nokia has the best products and it will continue innovating but if consumers refuse to adopt windows, then it does not matter.
4-competition is getting better. You have 2 entrenched ecosystem and you have RIMM and WP8 fighting for the 3rd ecosystem.
I can add a few more but in my view these are the key points to have in mind and monitor going forward. The first two points are the key going forward. The third point is mute at this point because we are seeing great acceptance of WP8. The 4th point,competition is healthy and I will take my bet on MS and Nokia joining forces than RIMM alone.
I strong believe the marriage between MS and Nokia is going to be an in formidable marriage.What makes their marriage a winner is they complement each other.Nokias weakness was developing a competitive ecosystem and MS weakness is hardware and design engineering. They are combining their strengths and covering for each others weaknesses thus forming a formidable opponents for their competitors. In my view this is an observation not realized yet by the investing crowd but scares the competition. What concerns me down the road is how will this marriage evolve? Will the marriage falter when they compete directly against each other (Nokia is coming up with it's own tablets, MS might come up with it's own smartphone)? Im also speculating that Nokia will create it's own ecosystem once it's fully turned around and builds up it's cash reserves.The biggest profit is in the ecosystem and the service side, the reason MS is spending fortunes supporting OEMs. Nokia still has a veto control on MeeGo and is also expanding the Asha OS which actually might be the 3rd largest OS in 2013.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It was a wonderful couple of days for us longs and I hope we never see $3 again. Since we are trying to bring up pros and cons, I am going to list my concerns that can hurt Nokia going forward. I am not sure if Nokia management reads this message board - I hope they do since collectively we can provide a lot insights into our thinking (investors and customers).
My major concerns are as listed below -
- Too much dependence on Qualcom ( all of Lumia phones are based on Snapdragen and there is NO second source for this Brains of Lumia phones). We had similar situation with Intel being the sole supplier in 80/90s for PC's but that changed with AMD being able to produce chips that are equivalent and compatible to Intel. There is no alternative to Qualcom - they can really hurt Nokia (almost like a blackmail situation). Apple is not dependent on anybody for iPhone brains - they depend on their own chips. This also brings in concerns about the margins since Nokia does not control cost of the main or heart of the product.
- Dependence on Microsoft - but if MS tried to hurt Nokia they will be hurting themselves. This is not as worrisome as much as Qualcom dependency.
- All of sudden carriers decide to shun Windows ecosystem since they are not able make much money of off that ecosystem - just like Android was able get in the foothold they can stop another ecosystem from encroaching on their turf.
- Some stupid lawsuits and patent invalidation / expiration - key source of Nokia strength.
There are some very smart posters on this board and I have learned a lot from them. I have also contributed in my own way and I hope we can help each other with our success since we have too many naysayers.
A positive not mentioned - billions of dollars spent on R&D, the results of which are pending transformation into marketable products. Who knows that those products are or when they'll reach the market, but there is very positive potential there.
Not many negatives mentioned. I would rather describe them as risk factors. And there are risk factors people need to be aware of -
- Possible hardware issues. The longer the phones are out, the less risk this factor poses, but it's still there - a bad batch of batteries or screens and you have a bunch of bad phones and the bad public relations would be a clear negative.
- Possible disruptive product marketed by a competitor - Apple or Samsung. Just as Nokia could produce a game changing product, so could Apple or Samsung, and then Nokia looks like a has been producer.
- Microsoft could do something stupid and blow-up the relationship with Nokia. Certainly not likely, but possible. Maybe MS will make a phone and stick it to Nokia....
- A China telecom, or India, or a US, telecom (or a combination of them) could stick-it to Nokia for some reason, cutting off marketing channels. Along those lines, the Chinese or Indian gov't could go after Nokia for some reason.
- Nokia could lose a critical patent case, severely impacting earnings.
None of these are likely, but they are possible. Nokia is an investment with great potential, but success is not guaranteed. Don't invest everything in anything. Diversify.
The positives :
1) China Mobile deal
2) Patent Treasure
3) Colloboration with Microsoft
4) Asha Smartphones (a game changer)
5) Nokia Siemens Network
the importance being in the same order listed.
The following factors help to a greater extent:
1) Agressive cost containment
2) Restructuring by shifting focus to core businesses
Now, the negatives:
1) Apple and Samsung Money Power
2) Component Supply Constraints
3) Lack of Apps in Smartphones
4) Indian tax fiasco
The following factors will have a minimal impact:
1) Patent wars
2) Breaking the iOs and Android momentum as it is entrenched too deep
So, conclusively , if Nokia can maintain the hype, innovation and improved execution, the positives are more overwhelming
I have grown up using the Nokia phones. Switched to Apple a few years back.. Now that a comparable phone is available I am going to make the switch back.. Not anti Apple but a few years back at the Apple store I was really turned off at the cash register at the person who had memorized a script about the additional items needed with the computer.. My eyes went to glaze and I walked away with without purchasing the computer for my daughter... Always will remember this... That being said I always fight for the underdog... Bought 10k shares a few weeks back at 3.79... Went to 4,25 and then back to the 3.71 area.. Almost reloaded but hedged.. Oh well the recent rally still makes me smile.. The only thing I can tell u is that a thing in mojo motion is hard to stop.. I'm gonna let it ride...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
My only worry is this, first the background. I bought into Nokia late last year but still at a great entry point. There was alot of buzz with WP 8 and I did alot of DD. I went to see one at store but was told I couldn't upgrade until April. But, right before Christmas, I called ATT and they said I could upgrade. I've had mine for almost a month now.
Initially, was very wowed with the experience but did run into battery issue. However, found what I think the problem was and haven't experienced it again. If I do, I know that a soft reset fixes it. Yesterday, while trying Bluetooth for first time, the phone shutdown. Looking into forums, I see that some others having a few issues.
My point here is this: I think the hardware is fantastic but, if MS and/or NOK don't address software issues quickly, the base of disgruntled users grow. Everyone bought for the wow factor but, if it's going to have issues, no one is going to hold on to it. People look at reviews and forums to make decisions. Having said that, I'm happy to see they did come out with Portico update and hope they keep at it. If things are addressed quickly, these successful phones will be even more of a hit and customers will back the company.
I agree that the phone biz is not the only thing NOK does and what is going to drive it. But, it was the catalyst for the jump in price the last 2 days. It's what the masses see. Also, we know at least 2 companies that make billions just on sales of phones and tablets so, no reason NOK can't as well.
I'm long and, as mentioned before, holding past $20.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Have to say I also have issues with my Nokia phone (L920).
2 wks ago the flash died, but a total reset at the service center fixed it.
Last week, I dropped the phone from about hip high as I was picking it up from a table, but dropped it on the floor at home. It completely died on me, though not a scratch on its body. Have to take it to service again. You can say it's my fault , but from my previous experiences, such drop should not be a big deal. A little disappointed. There are other niggles such as conflicting side and vertical scrolls, and web page links not getting selected when I press on them. It seems to happen when the link text is of less than a certain font size. It's getting at me.
I know criticisms are not so well received here, but if you all are serious, you have to know the weak links for sure. I bury this deep in the thread only for those interested.
But overall I am still a strong Buy guy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unfortunately I sold my holdings at $4.37. I was concerned with the reasoning behind pre-anouncement and what happens on the Jan. 24th. I will probably buy back in if their full report is positive. Now I am looking at ALU. What you all think about it?