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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • enjay_rear enjay_rear Jan 16, 2013 8:25 PM Flag

    Reality check on Nokia Business

    Annual returns $1 bil ; worth $6 bil - owns 18 % of next generation LTE patents and another 12 % from Qcom . Forbes called it the most 'dangerous' set of patents ownership , virtually strangling the entire next gen LTE

    Possible IPO of $8 bil or higher. Already turned around, profitable and market leading .

    Incorporated and market leader in automobile mapping , market challenger in mobile communication.
    Key assets with little operating expenses.

    Lumia Smartphone Business - Turning around with very strong sales in key smartphone markets
    Microsoft Gift - Annual $1 bil

    Asha Smartphone Business - Already profitable and growing segment, 20 % margin estimated

    There you have it, Nok is firing on all cylinders and all simultaneously growing

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    • where NOK goes in the next few weeks will dependent on guidance by Elop. If he states Lumia sales are going gangbusters and production problems are resolved this stock will rocket into $5+ easy.

    • Thanks everyone for the feedback, I will try to include those details and keep updating on and off , so that we can have a one post overall view .

      • 2 Replies to enjay_rear
      • Now, with this new information, a figure slightly above a single billion dollars seems to be gospel.

        The deal itself will involve Nokia paying Microsoft a per-device fee to use the OS, opening a potential rich revenue stream for the Microsoft mobile division for the future. Provided the phones sell, then Microsoft would not only be growing its market share, but also its revenues in a very direct and simple fashion.
        On the other hand, if the Nokia deal goes either south or sideways, Microsoft will have, in effect, ejected a billion greenbacks from its coffers for a nil return.

        Whatever the case, with Microsoft’s cash and software, and Nokia’s still massive handset market share, both of the companies are praying for a rebound. If they get it, they will both become richer. If not, Microsoft will survive, but Nokia might be both broken, and broke.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I do not know why everyone is saying 1 bil from MSFT, it's true Nokia is getting 250 mil each qtr but Nokia also has to pay MSFT for using WP8 OS. I don't know how much?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • All good observations, but not supported by hard numbers, so Nokia stays in a trading range until after the coming quarterly report. If the numbers are good (which I expect), then up. If the guidance for 2013 is good, then up some more.

      Would Elop give "very good" guidance? Based on sales to date in January, after China, after supply issues allow full (or at least "fuller") production? Would he give "very good" guidance based on planned product introductions/upgrades he knows are in the pipeline? Or will he just report and comment on the last quarter, and offer some vague pleasantries about expectations? What he says will make a difference in how high NOK goes, at least until Barcelona....

      Also, keep in mind Nokia is in a very competitive business, with very capable competitors. As well as I think Nokia will do in the next year, it will be an uphill climb - Samsung, LG, and others in the Android sphere are not pushovers, and they'll fight hard for every point of market share. As will Apple. That's all part of a complete reality check.

      With that in mind, Nokia is starting from such low expectations, despite the fact it is a great company with capable people, and great products, and a very promising partnership with the largest, richest, software company in the world. Nokia will do well. Reality check.

      And the "unexpected", good or bad, could happen. Reality check....

    • carbryce Jan 16, 2013 8:42 PM Flag

      Devices should be split out into 9million+ Asha smartphones and 60million+ dumbphones this Q.
      The latter tends to get over looked and we forget just how many people are actually walking around with Nokia phones in their pockets.

      • 1 Reply to carbryce
      • Exactly. I've been to places where everyone uses a cheap Nokia. These are places with a growing middle class. When they want to trade up to a smartphone they will go Asha and then Lumia. The 620 is brilliant. A $250 Lumia. That phone will be the killer. No wonder MS is paying Nokia $1B a year. The international brand recognition of Nokia is second to none.

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