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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • inmitersaw inmitersaw Jan 21, 2013 12:08 PM Flag

    MorganStanley Report - Nokia biggest "mindshare" gain in China - Now 3d behind Samsung & Apple

    Finally, some actual studies and numbers on the Chinese mobile market. According to Morgan Stanley's studies, "mind share" directly correlates to future market share.


    Taipei, Jan. 20 (CNA) Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC Corp. saw consumer awareness of its brand decline last month in China, where its most popular model, the Butterfly, has yet to officially hit local stores, according to U.S. brokerage Morgan Stanley.

    HTC's mindshare -- a measure of consumer brand awareness -- fell to 7.9 percent in December from 9.2 percent in the previous month, dropping it to fifth from second in November, Morgan Stanley said in a Jan. 16 report.

    "HTC's rank dropped off the top three with the biggest share lost owing to the lack of a flagship model, which might not come as a surprise given the HTC Butterfly is not yet available in most channels in China," Morgan Stanley analyst Jasmine Lu said in the report.

    The HTC Butterfly, launched in Japan on Oct. 17 and in the United States on Nov. 14, features an ultra-sharp 5-inch display and the latest quad-core processor from American chip designer Qualcomm Inc.

    Among other global brands, Apple Inc.'s mindshare rose from 8.6 percent in November to 9.1 percent in December thanks to the official launch of the iPhone 5, placing it second behind Samsung Electronics Co.'s 20.3 percent, Morgan Stanley's data showed.

    Finnish handset maker Nokia Oyj enjoyed the biggest gain among global brands of 0.8 percentage points pushing its mindshare to third in the rankings at 8.4 percent.

    The company's new Windows 8-powered Lumia 920 is being sold via China Mobile Ltd., the country's largest telecom operator.

    Among Chinese brands, Lenovo Group Ltd. closed its mindshare gap with Samsung, Apple and Nokia to rank fourth, backed by broader distribution and competitive pricing for flagship models.

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    • This mindshare is so important.
      I feared NOK brand may get the 'not interested' treatment in China as the brand lost its once mighty status. But as Samsung shook things up there, people seem to accept change of the ways in how to view brands other than Apple. They are opening up...

      NOK mindshare higher than AAPL? Just unbelievable. I am shaking with my 10% portfolio in AAPL. That's ok, got the rest all in NOK.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to oslotoy
      • As an investor in a small phone retail shop in China, I can tell you that most of the Chinese do not see iOS as a serious business product. It is a very desired luxury toy, though.

        Android is nicknamed "pian di huwa", roughly translated to "cheap droid phone." This is in part because all the cheap knockoff makers like Hwawei and ZTE have flooded the market with 50 different cheap android phones.

        I can see iOS taking the luxury toy/gadget market while Win8 takes over the business/professional market. Android OS belongs at the bottom with entry level phones.

        The Chinese are not fans of BB10 at all. Consumer interest is almost nill (as seen in Morgan Stanley report). And Ironically, the Chinese think of BB as unsecure because it's data is all managed transmitted through BB servers. Also, you can't pirate free software on BB... which is a MUST for Chinese consumers.

    • Let's see, given Nokia is now being offered for over 1 billion Chinese and with lower end and high end models as well as a FREE lumia 920 on subsidy lets guess what Nokia can get out of just China in lumia sales.

      iPhone's mindshare was around 8% yet they said China was a huge seller and the iPhone was never subsidized.

      So in Q3 apple sold $5.7 billion iPhones and this was the last quarter of the 4S so the slowest quarter given everyone was expecting the iPhone 5. $5.7 billion divided by $750 per phone means 7.6 million iPhones.

      Now Nokia had over 8% mindshare and now AFTER this point they introduced the 920 to over 1 billion Chinese on contract and the 620 at a very affordable price. Given these phones are selling so else globally and that Nokia is a higher better name brand in China than most cellphone companies, even Samsung it's not hard to imagine Nokia doing really well in china in the coming quarters.

      So then, if Apple could sell almost 8 million iPhones that were known to be obsolete and zero were subsidized - then I think it's safe to say Nokia will sell just half that - 4 million total Lumias - half 920's and half 620's - in Q1, especially given the Chinese New Year is coming.

      Now: throw in India where the 920 and the 620 will launch very soon and globally where the cheap 620 is launching also in Q1, and also throw in the 2 giants: Vodafone and Verizon who have or will launch their own versions of the 920 and its not hard to see how Nokia can easily get 6 and possibly as high as 8-10 million Lumias in Q1 which is historically the slowest quarter.

      Now: if the stock popped $1 on news of 4.4 million Lumias in Q4 - the best quarter of the year - what will happen to the pps if/when news leaks that they sold 6-10 million Lumias during the slowest quarter of the month?

      Most importantly - if Morgan and Goldman know this - do you think they're gonna wait 3-6 months to push this thing to the next level now that they've loaded up or will the pps move up in anticipation - on sales leaks and upgrades?

      I'm all in!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Now they see opportunity, buy will be at much higher level...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Lumia 922T and Lumia 620 start selling in China two weeks ago, I believe firmly NOK's mindshare will the highest within 1Q of 2013.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The longer China Mobile holds out on a deal with Apple, the more brand awareness and market share Nokia and Win8 will grab in China.

      This survey reflects Nokia & Win8 awareness just a month into the Launch in China.

      I have no doubt that with the Lumia subsidy on all 3 carriers, Nokia will convincingly over take Apple in mind share and market share in 2013, only 2nd behind Samsung.

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