It seems to me that the pps is doing exactly what it did on the 10th albeit with higher levels. With the ER coming out tomorrow IMHO there's additional risk based on what what comes out. What I mean is that if it were a normal trading day I'd expect it slowly climb up as it did on the 11th. But the ER introduces a wild card into the equation.
Personally I expect positive news and I hope Elop was smart enough not to let the whole cat out of the bag. But CEOs have done dumb things in desperation and I wonder if that could be the case and everything is priced in already and then some.
My hope is that the pps slowly climbs to 5. That's all I can expect at best. If the news is received badly I don't see this going below $4.2. But this is my uneducated guess.
What do you all think could happen?
Right now the street thinks Q1 will have a negative margin of -2% to -5%. If that's no longer the case the stock will fly because that will be a big, positive earnings forecast surprise. The other major potential positive is the net cash position for the Q goes up. I think there's a 50/50 chance of that. If Nokia is net cash positive the stock will be far less risky and likely to pop from that as well.
So there are two big questions that will be answered tomorrow. They both could be negative and the stock could fall, but not that far - maybe $.25 to $.50. The upside potential is far greater I believe. Everything is moving in the right direction on a macro level. If they've solved the cash burn and will have positive forward earnings based on the restructuring and improved demand, we go way up. Not just tomorrow but for the medium term and possibly long term.
I like the risk/reward imbalance on NOK a lot and am looking forward to tomorrow.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Remember tha Nok released a news about three weeks ago that quarter will be very good.News released was the day after priced dropped because a a news that Nok had not reported true earnings in a given country. I do not remember the name of country