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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • shortnokia shortnokia Feb 6, 2013 10:05 PM Flag

    This Pig Down 5-10% tomorrow! Finally some China Mobile news. It's ugly, kids.

    From Bloomberg just released tonight. This is a failure on many levels. Terrible for "option" longs like Vlad2Vlad

    And I quote

    On billboards across Beijing, in subway stations and on banners outside its stores, China Mobile Ltd. is inviting subscribers to “Change Phones for the New Year!” with Nokia Oyj’s Lumia 920T.
    That’s not as easy as it looks. Most China Mobile outlets won’t carry the 4,599-yuan ($738) device ahead of next week’s holiday, with the largest Chinese operator blaming delivery shortages. While 90,000 Lumia 920T models were ordered through Jan. 30, Nokia only shipped 30,000, said Li Yan, a China Mobile spokeswoman.
    Nokia missing out on the Chinese New Year shopping season is another stumble for the Finnish company two years into a comeback attempt driven by the Microsoft Corp.-powered Lumia. After U.S. holiday sales trailed estimates, Nokia risks a repeat in the largest handset market, which it once dominated and is trying to win back from Android devices and Apple Inc.’s iPhone.
    “China is the hottest market by far now and everybody is circling around trying to get in as much presence as they can,” said Neil Mawston, an analyst at Strategy Analytics in London. “Nokia must not fail in China because it would place their entire worldwide recovery effort at risk.”
    Nokia led smartphone sales in China with a market share topping 50 percent as recently as two years ago, only to let it slip away after ditching its own Symbian operating system in favor of Microsoft’s Windows. Local rivals such as Lenovo Group Ltd. and China Wireless Technologies Ltd., as well as giants Samsung Electronics Co. and Apple Inc. have left Nokia with a meager 1 percent share, according to Strategy Analytics.
    The Chinese Lunar New Year, which falls on Feb. 10 this year and is followed by a weeklong holiday, is a gift-giving season in China comparable to the peak Christmas shopping rush in the U.S. Retail sales during last year’s New Year holiday week rose 16 percent to $75 billion.
    “Nokia’s production is still very low and supply isn’t meeting demand at this point,” China Mobile’s Li said in a Feb. 1 interview. “Many of our stores don’t have any units.”
    The shortage threatens to let rivals widen their lead as China Mobile’s New Year campaign also features Samsung’s Galaxy Note 2, Lenovo’s A798T, the Coolpad 8190 from China Wireless, the MT788 from Google Inc.’s Motorola Mobility, and HTC Corp.’s T528t.
    Two China Mobile outlets visited by a Bloomberg News reporter at Beijing’s World Trade Center and on Guanghua Road on Feb. 1 both said they never received any of the Lumia 920T models, and didn’t expect any until after the holiday. The five rival devices were available at outlets visited by Bloomberg.
    Nokia acknowledged last month that supply constraints have held back sales, saying it is working to overcome the issue. James Etheridge, a Nokia spokesman, declined to comment on shipments to China Mobile or reasons for supply constraints.
    “We are now building more capacity as we speak to match the demand, and we would expect that at some point in not too distant future, we would be in a situation where we are no longer constrained,” Timo Ihamuotila, Nokia’s chief financial officer, said on a Jan. 24 conference call.
    Shares of Nokia have declined for five straight years, dropping more than 80 percent since Google’s Android software and Apple’s iPhone were unveiled in 2007.
    Chief Executive Officer Stephen Elop, who joined from Microsoft in 2010, started betting on his former employer’s operating system after Nokia’s homegrown Symbian software fell out of favor among consumers in Europe and the U.S.
    Elop made the influential U.S. market a cornerstone to Nokia’s Lumia smartphone strategy, striking deals with the two largest wireless carriers. Still, Nokia’s sales in North America reached just 700,000 handsets last quarter, compared with about 35 million for market leaders Apple and Samsung combined.
    While Nokia placed more focus on the U.S., the mobile device market in China exploded. In the past few years, it overtook the U.S., India, and various western European countries as the world’s biggest market. China smartphone shipments will rise 44 percent to 300 million units this year, IDC forecast Dec. 17.
    “Nokia had a massive headstart over everybody five years ago, but they let it slip,” Mawston said.
    Nokia is re-entering China with more profitable handsets and plans to be more aggressive in lower price points as well, Elop said on Jan. 24, adding demand was outstripping supply.
    “We’re shifting into a mode now, where we’re essentially starting with a fresh new portfolio of products,” Elop told a conference call. “The Lumia 920, which is on China Unicom’s network, and the Lumia 920T on the China Mobile network combined with other Lumia products that you are seeing or will soon see land in China, really give us that fresh approach.”
    Samsung led in China with a 16 percent market share in the third quarter, according to researcher IDC. A host of domestic vendors have also surpassed Nokia with low-cost smartphones, including Lenovo, China Wireless, ZTE Corp. and Huawei Technologies Co., which rounded out the top 5 vendors in the nation. Apple ranked sixth, with a 6.6 percent share.
    Demand for the Lumia exists in China, according to Li Azi, a 22-year-old university student in Kunming, in China’s southwest Yunnan providence. Li is one of China’s 1.34 billion residents who are upgrading old phones to take advantage of the country’s expanding third-generation mobile networks.
    “I like the Lumia 920 because of its design, the operating system,” Li said. “It has personality. I want to get a Lumia 920 but I haven’t bought it yet.”
    Nokia, which has been present in China for more than two decades, has an extensive distribution and salesforce in the country. The challenge for Nokia is to revive the brand’s attractiveness, said Sandy Shen, an analyst with Gartner Inc. in Shanghai.
    “The key is to improve the brand mindshare so people will consider Nokia whether it’s a holiday or not,” Shen said. “The Nokia brand has slipped a lot from the consumer mind in recent years due to the lack of star products.”
    The deal with China Mobile, announced in December, was a good step forward for Nokia. China Mobile is looking for a flagship smartphone to help it combat the iPhone, which isn’t compatible with its homegrown 3G network standard.
    To improve its chances, Nokia needs to make sure it doesn’t let down consumers like Lin Sanmu, who was looking to trade up from his Nokia 6120C at an electronics store in Beijing’s eastern Chaoyang district.
    “I got five years of use out of my last Nokia phone and that’s pretty good,” Lin said. “Nokia is good quality. Now, I’m looking to upgrade from a feature phone to a smartphone so I can use the Web.”
    Still, Lin left the shop empty-handed because it didn’t have the Lumia model he wanted.
    To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Adam Ewing in Stockholm at; Edmond Lococo in Beijing at
    To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kenneth Wong at; Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg(dot)net

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • This is really really bad news. We are definitely going down like a pig - 10% tomorrow.

      Wait! A few days ago some short basher was saying Nokia only shipped 30K phones to china mobile this whole time. If my memory is right then how could that little turd know this? I assumed he was just bashing but now lookie here, a real Bloomberg report.

      On the downside Bloomberg is legit - they verify their sources and in fact they quote a china mobile exec so there's no way for me or us to say they just made it up.

      On the other hand - I vaguely remember some 5 months ago when Nokia went below $2 and Goldman was saying SELL that Bloomberg did a hit piece and I remember remarking how - WOW they even have Bloomberg in their back pockets.

      That said, isn't it just wonderful for the shorts that as soon as the stock starts to rally somehow some really bad news comes out - almost like it was already typed up and someone just hits send.

      I mean we rallied big before earnings and BAM, a nasty PR drops out of the sky without any notice saying Nokia got raided by tax officials. The stock rally haults and reverses and then Elop says Q4 results were great and the rally starts again. As soon as we got close to the key $5 mark - BAM, another really BAD PR falls from the sky saying the tax raid resulted in a $2.5 billion tax Bill. The rally freezes in its tracks and the stocks dives below $4. Then 2 days ago the stock starts to rally for no reason and we're up nearly 10% in just 2 days and the pps runs through the key $4 mark with conviction and now - BAM, a nice late PR saying sales of the 920 are not just slow but downright non-existent.

      So now what? Part of me says this is legit, this is Bloomberg and 920 sales must be horrible. But as an economist I was taught to look at trends and use them to predict the future. And what I'm seeing is clockwork timing - bad piece after bad piece being release at key times to stop any rally by Nokia. So now I gotta ask myself, is this new low 920 supply news as much exaggerated BS as the tax raid and tax bill "news" pieces were.

      My brain says no, Elop is a clown and he messed up. My gut instinct says this is old news and this issue has or will be resolved within days. I say this because the camera shortage was known about since at least December. Nokia is a top of the line tier 1 manufacturing company and any shortage will be routed or fixed quickly. It's hard for me to Believe that Elop knew about this some 2 months ago and the problem still hadn't been resolved.

      My Conclusion:

      This massive shortage of 920's WAS true (but only true in part) and this PR is another hedge fund hit piece using old factual data to imply something current and much more exaggerated. It's possible the volume to China Mobile was in part low (besides the shortage) due to prior commitments to carriers in Germany, US, etc who launched first so the 30K figure by itself is misleading and is being used to falsely imply that Nokia simply could not produce more than 30K units for China in the whole month of January when in fact Nokia most likely routed a lot of the supply to Europe and the US (Christmas emptied those supply chains so it makes sense Nokia desperately nad to fill those channels per their contracts with those carrriers while China mobile had just launched in Jan so a slow initial delivery does not break any contracts) and if that's true they will definitely have much more supplies in China by feb 10th, as they will now do the opposite, route most of the production to china. And even if I'm right - that's days away and even if Elop gets off his rear and confirms this in a few days, the hit piece did its job and killed another rally and in the next couple days the pps will go much lower - 20% lower I'd expect.

      So yeah, options are risky, but I just wired $1500 and I hope to buy more OPTIONS in the next few days as Nokia gets taken down just in time for us to find out supply constraints are no longer an issue just 1 week from now. And just like that, it's gonna be like it never happened - which is what will become of this bogus tax charge as well.

      This is what hedge funds do and they do it well and nobody can stop them cause they're all in on it.

      Yes, The whole market is rigged. Markets are efficient. Ahaaahhahaaaaaaa.

      How I'm comin'?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I block this user for making story up and spreading lie

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Where did you pull this info from? from your mother flower#$%$.y.?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to concordkitchens
      • shortnokia...your name says all and you have always been too negative about much are you short?. At some point,you should just give up and realize Nokia has turned around and is a money looser for those shorting.You can't find a single investor in the investing world who doesn't believe Nokia has turned around and is profitable going forward.This article is just an illustration of the turn around rather than the negativity you were trying to use for.Nokia is having a difficulty time meeting demand even with increased supply.That is a testament to Nokia's quality smartphones and the wow factor of its new smartphones.Millions of consumers are desperate to get their hands on these smartphones but there is only so much you can make because they are not iphone 5 and Samsungs Jelly plastics (quality Nokia smartphones require craftmanship from painting to assembly)

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • China was never a factor in the earnings,so this is a none issue.

    • jonathan.chasse310 Feb 6, 2013 11:37 PM Flag

      7$ by End of day tomorow!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nokia selling phones faster than they can make them is bad news?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to savage4731
      • If it is down tomorrow will sell other stocks so I can buy more NOK. If the only bad news is that Nokia still has production problems for one phone that is in high demand I can wait for the problem to be solved. Everything else seems to be going very well and so too will the 920T. You would think that most of the short term weak longs would be out of NOK by now.

        Lots of strong and long holders now. NOK could be green again tomorrow. Bloomberg article has lots of positive stuff. Like all the advertising China Mobile is doing for the 920T. I like how much they are doing on their website for 920T.

        Lots of good news everywhere on the demand side and Nokia knows how to make lots of phones. Had a private tour of a Nokia assembly line in Finland years ago. Saw how they could add new lines and change models in short order. Very impressive.

        I have a diploma from Nokia framed on my wall saying that I passed some kind of a Finish initiation that at the end found me swimming in the Baltic in February, naked and drunk at one in the morning and pushing small ice bergs out of the way. So be careful if you are invited by Nokia to any such event. The Baltic is cold!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • if it goes down 10%..I have $50,000 more to add..bring it!

    • please read

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

5.845-0.115(-1.93%)9:53 AMEST