Longs dreams of being lived long time by Chinese go down drain
Seeing people here talk of millions sold! Champagne dreams on a Ham's beer budget
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I just read the Bloomberg article. We're gonna dive hard tomorrow.
The shortage is real and not just managed to keep prices high. Elop onky managed to ship 30,000 920's to china all this time. This isn't made up, Bloomberg is quoting an actual China Mobile executive.
This is easily the biggest blunder Elop has done so far. This is what I was saying a couple days ago and this guy doesn't see anything and eventually one of this mistakes is gonna cost us billions. This was an enormous opportunity for Nokia and this imbecile didn't know there were not enough camera components until way too late.
This is not possible. This is unthinkable. Elop that mindless mental midget just sunk the entire Q1 and with it goes Q2 as Q2 will be a product transition stage.
God help us - maybe, maybe the 620 will save the day but this kind of blunder is just unheard of these days and in these mature industries by the biggest most experienced - biggest supply chain company of them all. Elop has got to be the biggest fool there is. CEO's have been fired for less, why is this clown still around. If Nokia doesn't take a huge market chunk from Samsung this year there won't be a next year. And now the biggest Chinese New Year shopping season where we had the 920 going for free is gone and Eflop managed to ship a whopping 30,000 phones since the launch.
That's not even a launch. So what was he so smug and confident about in his interview yesterday. No joke, this guy is a delusional - he's high in being the big man - the CEO - the big turd making the big decisions. That's why he's "ACTING" the way he is not because things are going well. What a putz!!!
FIRE ELOP, now!!!! No more excuses for this halfwit. Hire a man this time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Aahahahaaa. What a clown.
Just filling the china mobile channel would require a million 920's. then there's China Unicom and China Telecom so Nokia will "sell" at least 1.5 million 920's alone just in china for Q1. The 620 should be double that so 3 million. And let's say India will do have of china so 750K 920's and 1.5 million 620's so 2.25 million Lumias in India.
Europe should be good for 1 million 920's and 2 million 620's while the US and rest of the globe should fill in the rest of my personal prediction of 9 million Lumias for Q1.
I realize this is a very aggressive goal but all the signs are there - the 929 is selling well and best if all, it's still selling at full price so it's doing wonders for margins for Q1. Elop has done well managing supply so demand is great. Then the 620 has simply caught fire - no subsidies and no marketing and its number 1 all over the globe. You add the other lumia devices and I don't see how they don't get at least 6 million Lumias (which would be considered a blowout) and perhaps reach my goal of 9 million.
If that happens, the $1 pop we got on news of 4.4 million Lumias is gonna look like a bear raid. And if we get 9 million then I'd expect at least a $2 pop.
But wait, better, sleeker, faster and more beautiful phones are coming out next month and launched in April alongside these great selling phones. As I said months ago - Nokia will eat Samsung's lunch.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"at least 1.5 million 920's alone just in china for Q1"
If 90k demand in January for 920s is true then 1.5million for full Q1 is a "little" bit exaggerated, isn't it?
Hope this story is not the whole truth. And also hope that 620 sells better than 920.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm the one that put the Bloomberg China Mobile article up first. People naturally trashed me.
I've read your posts and respect you. You've never attacked me for my posts.
However, you do make some unsubstantiated claims like "the 929 is selling well and at full price." How do you know this? What source can you cite? You also take certain leaps of logic. Like saying the 620 is selling like fire across the world. I assume you base this on the best-seller lists. Surely you do see how those are inaccurate predictors at best. I'm convinced, after some thought and research, that a number of best seller lists are calculated on percent of stock sold and not on actual volume. Nokia is not supplying a lot of phones so it's easy to sell them out and end up on the best-seller lists.
You cite the million needed to fill the China Mobile channel. Yet according to the Bloomberg article, only 90,000 have been ordered through January 30. Unless they wrote that wrong, it would simply indicate no real end demand for the phone with respect to the expectations you are citing.
The numbers you cite would indicate a much larger operating margin for Smart Devices than Elop gave in the CC. I know it's convenient to say that he is "managing expectations" but it is doubtful he would grossly under-predict expectations on a CC. And rather than managing supply as you say, Elop should be doing everything to ramp it up. That is, unless, that demand is not there.
Look. I was a former long for a bit there. And I wanted to believe as well. Yet it was more disappointment for Nokia. It's been like this for going on 2 years of the Windows experience. 7 million Lumia's in Q4 was reduced to 4.4. Nokia has not exceeded expectations for a quarter in a long time. If they can't get it right this time, why would you think anything will change in the future?
This article, unless it is a complete fabrication (doubtful), is a major sign that things may not turn out as so many here expect.
Would appreciate any informed thoughts you have on AAPL.
Vlad2vlad, did you read the article? It paints a picture of both relatively weak demand from China Mobile and even weaker production. I like your version better, but the Bloomberg piece is disturbing.
Certainly don't want to validate a d-bag like shortnokia but the Bloomberg article he's referring to is either grossly inaccurate or a bit disturbing, if true.