Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) is currently down 2.31% to $3.60 in today’s trading session. Tiger Cubs are making millions in the process (See all hedge funds shorting Nokia). Nokia faces many challenges and Goldman Sachs issued a new report yesterday cutting the price target for the Finish based firm. Why the downgrade for Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V
1.The launch of Lumia 720/520 smartphones does bring Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V)’s Win Phone products to lower prices, but features remain relatively undifferentiated, in Goldman’s opinion. Nokia continues to lack a flagship product that can challenge Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (LON:BC94) (KRX:005930) or Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
2.Goldman Sachs’ recent mobile survey results are supportive of their conservative investment thesis, as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) was a relative laggard in terms of retention (vs. Android and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iOS) as only around 41% of Win Phone owners chose to buy another Win-based device over the last six months. Notably, their latest survey findings suggest that price consideration is less of a reason to “defect” than what Goldman concluded in their prior survey, making it incrementally harder for Nokia to attempt to capture share with lower ASPs.
3.Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s ability to reestablish itself as a meaningful participant in the consumer compute landscape continues to be in question, in Goldman’s view, and on top of that Nokia remains only one of many credible providers operating Win Phone OS
So firths,if you own a Nokia phone WHY would you buy whithin 6mnths a new Nokia Phone!!!!!!
Second, GS forgot that Nokia is connecting the NEXT billion customers to the Internet !!!!!!!!
do not be fooled
From my experience Goldman Sachs operates only to manipulate and has no credibility. You might as well follow Cramer. If anything, Goldman's recommendations move should 90% of the time are setting up for a reversal in a forward 1 to 3 month time frame.
Even as it is - this latest downgrade is fully of only surface analysis with no substance. I for one will buy a lot more as Goldman tries to push this down another 30 cents or more when it gets de-listed from the Euro top 50. I am hoping for a 3.2 to 3.25 price range by March 18th.
A quick reply to Goldman's three points -
1. Yes, Nokia's phones are "relatively" undifferentiated, but there are in fact some differences that will steer at least some buyers to Nokia phones. Starting from a very low number, even minor positive differentiation will result in significant growth in market share for Nokia. If Nokia had 80% of the current market, then sure, Nokia would likely lose share just on a division of the market into (roughly) thirds (Nokia, Samsung, Apple), but the reverse is true, especially keeping in mind Nokia's position in emerging markets. In time, there's no reason why Nokia/Windows could not reasonably expect to grow into at least a 1/3 market share of the mobile phone market worldwide.
2. Goldman notes only 41% of Windows phone owners would retain a Windows phone, 6 month survey - in reply, Windows 8 has not been out for more than 6 months. As Windows 8 features improve, loyalty will increase. 41% retention is about the worst you're going to see - that figure will increase measurably as Windows 8 improves, and as Nokia phones improve - maps, music, Skype, Skydrive, apps, etc..
3. Two Goldman points in the third item - First, "MSFT's ability to reestablish itself as a meaningful participant in the consumer computer landscape continues to be in question". In reply, since when does MS need to "reestablish" itself in the consumer computer landscape? Who's #1 in desktop? Who's #1 in games? MS is not #1 in phones, but share is growing, and there is no reason to believe it will not continue to grow. And by the way, just who is it that "questions" something that is not true, namely MS's need to "reestablish" itself in consumer computing.
Second - "Nokia remains only one of many credible providers operating Win Phone". Now who really believes that's a credible statement? That's like saying China is only one of many countries where Chinese people live...
The Goldman "analysis" is a joke. DO NOT LISTEN TO WALL STREET!
Wow. Somebody really drank the Nokia Kool-Ade!
Windows 8 is a FAIL. adoption is even slower than with Vista! Even Ballmer has taken to appologising for it.
As for your faith in percentage gains, need I remind you that if you start with a tiny number, even a modest increase in numbers looks huge on a percentage basis. WP's market share remains insignificant and appears to be falling.
Since when is Goldman polling people in developing countries and International sales in general. A dollar is a dollar. I would say the Nokia lumia 920 in relatively differentiated by the camera which I personally tested and the user interface and the best map application in the world. If those attributes do not differentiate it than there system of determining differentiation is flawed. Goldmans 41% figure was obtained how.
They had two 18 year old interns ask 20 people on the streets of New York and the survey was complete. Surveys are irrelevant unless they are done by unbiased firms which would cost large amounts of money and time.
Microsoft & Nokia are not relevant- They have huge government contracts, businesses, etc.
I have software that allows me to see what operating system people are using on the internet etc. Windows is so far ahead of what these polls have been saying it is almost unbelievable. Keep in mind that much research and polling is done by 16-21 years olds that just want to get it over worth and go drink or get high.
So you rather believe GS.
Remind you they were selling highly rated MBS to their second tier clients while their first tier was benefiting from the short. What side of that fence you think you are on?
They would sell their into slavery if they one.
Scant supply of Ashas? Of 822's at Verizon? 920's at Att? There are so many areas that have had phones and have phones now. Maybe not 40 million but Nokia and Microsoft have both publicly stated that sales are better than expected in one way or another. That is only a small portion of their earning anyway. What about patents, ad revenue, Intellectual property revenue, App store revenue, NSN revenue and on and on.
then you are an outright dope!...if you listen and buy stocks according to a yahoo stock thread?...lol...then what a dope!
i post comment and information here to help people do some dd and LEARN what they are getting into...if you do not check and crosscheck and triple anything said/posted about a stock...then who's the dummy?
Sentiment: Strong Buy