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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • cbuster9078 cbuster9078 Mar 15, 2013 3:44 AM Flag

    What changed since we hit 4.70 in February?

    Nokia turned profitable in 2012 Q4, hits 4.70 and now sitting at 3.47 , 30% decline for no reason. I just do not understand why, Nothing changed since we hit 4.70, actually we've been getting more good news from lumia sales, new phones/products, more good news from NSN.. Longs are not only fighting the competition from apple, samsung HTC .. but bashers and stupid analysts that keep bashing Nokia daily based on previous data. Long and calm but the only thing that frustrates me is the management silence to all those attacks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Sell Sell Sell

    • I think I know the reason why NOK had been downed ... the 200 mils shares converted at 3.41 today .. so they had been shorted NOK from 4.5 to protect their gain ... they can short up to 200 mils shares since they can buy NOK at 3.41

      • 1 Reply to tnguyeh
      • I think this is a very reasonable explanation, imo. These convertible bond holders may have been shorting it once they realized there was no more news coming out of headquarters for them to be concerned about. Had there been forwad guidance about good sales figures, nok would have kept going up. Even the little hope of 2 million lumia 920T sales was squashed, LOL. Usually shorts like to operate in news vaccuum, imo. That is the best time for them.

    • Crooks from WS (GS !) want to pick up cheap shares. Because not so many shares held by institutions, no serious attempt to support PPS. Management of NOK not supportive, either.

    • 1. Eliminated dividend shareholder base
      2. Botched china launch
      3. Disappointing sales in us market
      4. Disappointing guidance for q1
      5. Disappointing product announcements at mwc
      6. Vague sales outlook
      7. Blackberry and samsung products with better feature sets
      8. Google not supporting wp8 with apps
      9. Ongoing supply mishaps

    • What has happened during that 30% decline is that WP has failed to gain traction (or market share). Meanwhile the competition has been busy beating Nokia's brains out in the most profitable segment of the market.

      The dividend cut didn't help investor confidence.
      Elop's warning about NEGATIVE margins for this quarter didn't help either.
      Microsoft's plans to make their own Surface phone, and Elop's warning about how this could "screw Nokia" was another kick to shareholders' teeth.

      • 1 Reply to rmbo47
      • eflop stated (.02) +/- .04
        M$FT has never stated plans for a surface phone & eflop has never warned anything about it, in fact welcomed the idea if M$FT ever decided to make one.
        All 10K (20F) filings have 'risk factors' devised by lawyers to protect company from lawsuits

        but you got one right, good for you

    • Based on hard historical data, the current share price is low but understandable.

      Hard sales numbers in January were ok, but not great, and profits were correspondingly modest. Dividend eliminated. New phones introduced since January are good but included no unique innovations. No tablet, much less a tablet that is in any way innovative, and some Nokia executives have stated Nokia will not be introducing a tablet soon, in direct contrast to statements other Nokia execs made to the contrary last year.

      The Windows 8 OS is not setting the world on fire - it's good, but sales are modest. Relationship with Microsoft is unsettled - continued talk of a possible MS "Surface Phone".

      Production/supply chain problems remain a cloud - continued impact unclear. India tax situation is a risk factor. Guidance for current quarter was for weak sales.

      The only reason anyone has to expect higher share price is speculation about current phone sales/profits, and increased profits from NSN and mapping, and Nokia is well past the phase where people will buy it based on speculation - share price will increase only as the result of a combination of hard profit numbers, innovations, and good guidance..

      Good sales and profit numbers and guidance in April will help, 2-3 more quarters of the same will help more, and introduction of differentiating products, either hardware or software will help more.

      I think we'll see the sales and profits and new products in the coming months, but that's a prediction. As the great philosopher Yogi Berra once said "Good predictions are difficult, especially about the future".

    • And dividend was suspended, restructuring takes time for a company this size.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Nokia had it's chance but they were too conservative. They did not have enough phones on the market. They could have been in great shape but no. Consumers go to buy a phone they will not wait for a month, they buy one that day. Nokia dropped the ball. Glad I sold out.

    • It hit even 4.9 at the 23rd of January.
      MWC expectations (tablet, new high end device, Verizon), Q1 guidance, no hard numbers - somehow sentiment has changed.

      Have to wait another month to finally see who is who:)

    • If you're looking for some rational reasons, Nokia took away the dividend, and they didn't release any tablet. However, that doesn't account for the full spread of the drop. The media is controlled by investment firms that want Apple and Samsung to stay on top, and are thus inclined to dismiss and bash potential competitors. Also, you have hedge fund MM's that like to trigger panic sell-off by breaking through stop loss barriers...

      I suppose management could be more aggressive, but the one thing you should take comfort with is that Nokia isn't about to go broke. The stock price may be artificially suppressed and manipulated, but it will rise eventually on good economic data in the coming months. You need to sit tight, and wait for the tree to grow, before expecting to harvest fruit. The low hanging stuff already came down, and so we need to be patient. It kind of sucks, but what else is there to do? I'll suggest to choose your cards wisely, and then wait for the game to pay out ;o)

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