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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • thermonuke Apr 14, 2013 3:13 PM Flag

    52-Week High Was Just 3 Months Ago

    2 days after the Q4 pre-reported. Isn't that so refreshing compared to the 52-week high being 52-weeks prior as has been the NOK case since what seems like forever?

    The 200-day continues inching higher as well. I couldn't offer a forecast at this stage but while $3.63 is a target, $4.09 is still a key level. If there is a bull run into the Q1 report, I'd expect that to be the area. But I also would not be suprised at continued $3.50 consolidation until Thursday.

    I believe the odds are greater than 50% that Mr. Elop will be guiding forward Devices profitability after reporting the first consecutive quarterly profits for NOK in years. Some Lumia estimates at 8M, of which I am too cautious to embrace, would suggest a potential HERE profit as well if legacy smart devcies did not drop off too dramitcally.

    2012 may well go down in Nokia's history as the most important year since founding. In 2012, NOK realized almost $4B of restructuring charges, endless downgrades that eventually led to an index delisting, the launch of a brand new product line with no real assurance of success, got the CHL, turned NSN into a profitable venture, appeased the very patient longs that watched their net worth in the position collapse with the dividend payment, renewed focus on the patent portfolio wwith some key victories, and continued market expansion with financing a brand new factory during all these charges and losses.

    The fruits of this labor will be sweet, and the harvest is not long off now. Mr. Elop, CEO of the Year.

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    • sure was, when you and all the paid touters were pumping this hard. Sure was...dang straight...

    • thermonuke Apr 17, 2013 9:53 AM Flag

      True story!

    • tracey563 Apr 15, 2013 10:25 AM Flag

      i dont see it yet,the industry is getting worse,more competitive compressed margins and worse yet the emergence of samsung as the powerhouse,bottomless resources,no real debt favorable cost optimistic long term but im betting that this won be an outstanding stock,but a good one say 7 dollars in 5 years,its a good return annualized.

      • 1 Reply to tracey563
      • thermonuke Apr 15, 2013 10:32 AM Flag

        Maybe for Samsung and AAPL, but NOK is growing from a very low base with differentiated product. 5 years to achieve a stock price that is still less than annualized revenues seems extremely conservative. 5 years is a long time for a major hack event on the android platform to unfold, we all know it's coming. Chrome is a nightmare too. Well before 5 years Nokia will have a true PureView camera on a W8 smart device. The margin compression will in fact be pushed by Nokia's low cost/high quality products, bringing serious competition. Triple digit YoY North America and China Devices sales growth alone will drive the stock, which is possible every quarter this year.

    • blair.wagner Apr 14, 2013 5:00 PM Flag

      Betting the ranch on this one.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Great post. 2012 was a remarkable year for NOK. Turnarounds are tense, messy and non linear. This one is starting to shift from a high wire act to a position of real strength. The restructuring combined with a strong new line of products were both remarkably well done. Bold decisive action in the face of massive criticism from almost every stakeholder.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • hope so. we need to see TANGIBLE results and forecasts though to get the stock moving.

      all that is nice, but if its just a vague forecast like 'we target 5-10% operating margins at some point' then there is going to be a long 3 month wait to the next release.

      The market has been waiting for this supposed big turnaround and seen nothing so far. Q4 gave hope for NSN, but not for phones. If they can show some real sales figures (retail sales, not just shipments) in China, India then its game on. If it's another "we are proud we shipped 6 million lumias, despite losing 65% market share in china" then we got nothing and the analysts will #$%$ all over this thing down to $2.80

      • 2 Replies to calbucks09
      • thermonuke Apr 14, 2013 4:58 PM Flag

        The sales base in China was so dimished from Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 that a reversal is more than possible with major launches in the Q1 2013. Net Sales for Devices at Q4 2011 of $1B+ down to $200m Q4 2012, we shouldn't forget that NOK has very strong brand awareness in China. Did the Chinese consumer buy? We'll find out, but they certainly at least picked one up for a closer look.

        Also N. America QoQ 444% may not be achieable again, but do you feel 10% around $200M is unreasonable? YoY is looking at triple-digit percentage improvements again. Q1 2012 just $93M.

      • I expect better than 6 million but even at that it's better than the 4.4 million Lumia's they sold last quarter. They increased market share in the first quarter so your faux fears about market share decine won't happen. Elop said increasing sales quarter after quarter and it looks like he will deliver. I feel even better about the next quarter because the 920,620,520,720 seem to be in strong demand. The 520 will be coming to t mobile and the 928 to Verizon.This is only one division of Nokia, NSN has been profitable for several quarters. The restructuring costs should be over this quarter so I see profits and isn't that what count in the end.

    • leestoller Apr 14, 2013 3:19 PM Flag

      $5 by Fri.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

7.30+0.15(+2.10%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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