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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • calbucks09 calbucks09 Jun 25, 2013 9:24 PM Flag

    pro forma earnings expectations

    once again I'll throw it out there.

    my forecast based on a number of moving parts. share price goal $6-7 by 2015

    this is the pro forma number (excludes one-time charges or benefits)

    Q1 13 -.02 (already reported)
    Q2 13 -.02
    Q3 13 -.07
    Q4 13 +.02

    2013 -.09
    2014 -.14
    2015 +.09

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    • Well we'll know soon if you are right on Q2.

    • What utter nonsense.

      Made up numbers - I can make them up, too - different ones, equally plausible, with a much better outcome, much more quickly.

      Here you go - Windows 8 will gather speed this fall - consumers will see the logic and simplicity of dealing with one operating system, and will start going into stores and asking for Windows 8 phones.

      Microsoft, with Nokia as the mobile partner, has an ecosystem strategy that is compelling - no one else has the outlook of the W8 ecosystem - no one. Nokia's in a great place.

      We'll see what numbers Nokia reports on July 18, and the two quarters after that. All other numbers are just blather.

      You post consistently negative posts. You're either a paid basher or a short.

    • What assumptions are you making? This set of numbers is pointless without knowing margin assumptions, expense ratios and top line growth and market share. None of this is possible to know or even estimate right now. It will be clearer after this quarter though.

      So these are essentially just random numbers on a page. They also get the stock to about $2.00 in 2015, or a loss of 50% from here.

      What is far more likely is they will have a strong pivot quarter. No more losses and much higher earnings than you're showing. I believe we will see that by 4q 2013. If I believed what you believed about their performance I would sell tomorrow. You can't possibly be long if you are this pessimistic about NOK.

      • 2 Replies to thefretgenie
      • What assumptions? The entire outlook is assumptions. As with all assumptions, these numbers have nothing to do with reality. I'm still waiting for actual fact-based projections.

      • WHen I first posted the estimates I explained that these are revised based on the major disappointment of Q4 and Q1 numbers on Lumia and Feature phones.

        If you really want to know I'll type up all the variables.

        If the shares pop to $5 short term I'd definitely sell my position near term and buy back lower.

        fundamental backdrop on the assumptions is that shipments of 7.3 million lumia in Q2 represent too much 'sell-in' relative to end user demand ... one might call it channel stuffing, albeit it might be unintentional. Consequently Q3 should disappoint due to a buildup in channel inventory going into Q4. feature phones are falling off a cliff and are the biggest near term challenge as they bring in over $1billion in earnings contribution for the year. mapping continues at modest losses for the forseeable future, and NSN profit improves.

        Marketshare continues to go nowhere in india and china as the white box android makers are commoditizing the smartphone market there for most consumers who are unsophisticated.

        However I expect Elop to be gone in early 2014 and the company to migrate to a multi-platform smartphone strategy that adapts to the difficult low end environment, using Android in Emerging markets in particular to try to hold onto remaining EM marketshare left from feature phones.

        And finally I expect windows phone to get to 7% in 2014 and 9-10% in 2015... which is a huge disappointment to me as I had thought initially the Nokia brand was so strong in Europe and emerging markets that feature phone users would be loyal to the brand and go with WP.

    • Oh gee thanks Cal. Keep shorting and bet the farm.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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