Science Blogs, 3.14: Windows Phone Is Actually Awesome
This is exactly how I felt buying my Windows Phone back in February 2012. Windows Phone and Lumia 1020 and 520 will swamp the market very quickly. Add to this tablets, and you're talking blockbuster mobile quarters for Nokia ahead. Why do you think Nokia is releasing a tablet? Because their phone division is on fire.
Take it down a notch son. It's not on fire as you say, there are no lines out the doors waiting for the 1020. This is a percentages game and the fire won't start until we see 10-12% of the market in Nokia's corner. That won't happen for another year at least. During that time, you have some very powerful companies also competing in the same arena with strong followers.
The game will be one on two fronts. One is the hardware and here is where Nokia is shining with the 1020 being a clear differentiation from the competition. The other is the application front. Here is where Microsoft needs to demonstrate focused business applications and development teams to really demonstrate a business use case. Delta's move to WP and Nokia was outstanding to see, we need to see lots more of that.
When employees see that they have a BYOD that works well with their corporate needs and their personal, that's when things will really begin to go well. Until then, iOS and Droid own the corporate market space.
We're still in early adoption phase and until we have that magic number of 16% market penetration, the masses will simply not risk buying a Windows phone - especially with the bad taste of the WP7 being short lived and not supported.
Personally I think Nokia has done an outstanding job. Microsoft really needs to step up here. With Balmer now a dead horse, maybe we will see the farm of executive VP's work their behinds off as they jockey for the top slot. The WP platform is certainly ready to perform, hopefully we see a firestorm start there.
not YET at least...and really, it is on fire (lines don't need to be formed to have amazing sales, lot of sales occur online now). Wait til NOK actually releases it everywhere...10-12% doesn't have to happen across the board (in the US for example--unnecessary, every sale here is GRAVY), all that needs to happen is 20% here and 15% there...UAE, UK, Italy, Canada, Columbia, Peru, Phillipines, Russia...it's happening faster than I think more people would like to admit. Enterprise will belong to MSFT/NOK, apple and droid's success will vanish. Again, DELTA is the tip of the iceberg. Every move to Nokia is not and does not have to be announced...it will just happen. BYOD policies are dumb and create confusion in the workplace. Having a consistent harmonized platform is the right solution for a serious business. Elop will be the man (MSFT Business dvision did very well under him). Prior to his succession to Ballmer, MSFT will gobble up Nokia, hook, line and sinker. It will be a stock/cash deal IMO. MSFT market cap is 289.47B. Cash is 76.21B. NOK TTM revenue is: 34.73B. MSFT TTM revenue is: 77.85B. NOK market cap is a ridiculous: 15.44B. MSFT should pay 150% of sales or $50B for Nokia. $15B-$25B in cash and the rest in stock. Spin off or sell NSN. Done deal. No brainer. Consolidates their D&S division. Put Elop on top, he would have intimate knowledge of both D&S and Business Division. If I was at Vegas today, I would go all-in on Elop as the successor to Ballmer. Only fools would think they'd bring in anyone else internal or external. I've watched Elop enough to see what a competitive, smart, sophisticated and eloquent guy he is. His performance at Nokia has been phenomenal considering the bloated mis-directed backward looking conservative company he inherited. All these guys saying Nokia should have gone Android are completely off base. Nokia would have got ten drowned in a sea of Samsung. Instead it is differentiated and leads Windows Phone and grows.