I got $12 the other day, but i am using some unique factors that are typically ignored. Last year I put fair value at 20B and here we are.
what are you using for NSN earnings (dollar amount per quarter)
If you don't have a number, you don't know what you are taking about.
What is the FV of 7.2B as applied to current debt? How are you amortizing it?
What discount rate are you giving nokia as it pertains to their not yet upraded credit rating and how will this impact their cashflow over the next 5 years?
Something tells me you have no idea whati am talking about. But please continue, you're number isn't that bad.
Using Buffets Cash Flow Valuation Model I get $7.52 similar what some analyst have targeted.
Of course a lot depends on what numbers you use in the formula. For 7.52 the following very conservative assumptions were made; Long term growth 1.7%, tax rate 20%, discount rate 10%, debt $7B, cash $17 b, sales $17B, EBIT $2 B.
Note if the EBIT only is changed to $ 3B, you get $9.93 what some here estimate. The formula is sensitive to EBIT, LT growth rate, discount rate. Changes in debt, cash, and sales do not vary the model results as much as the other variables.
You can google the formula, it comes on a spread sheet at editgrid.
do you think NOK (NSN & HERE & Patent + whatever cash they got) are worth 10$? Cause at this point unless someone outbid MSFT, NOK is not longer in the handset business regardless of how much Q3 & Q4 units are sold (surely the unit sold might increase the chance of someone else outbidding microsoft), but assume no one comes to bid on that, do you still think NOK (minus handset) is worth 10$?