I was a huge gold bull ten years ago. I really do believe in gold and hate the paper ponzi's by our soon to be one world guvs. But there is a time and place for all things. Right now gold is in a bear market. Not a company in the world thinking of buy IAG. The smart companies are shutting down mines, not buying high costs companies. In short, they are doing precisely the opposite of the die hard bulls here, and bulls will and do die hard. The basis for any prediction is the POG and POS. Until small miners disappear, and they have yet to do that but this is coming, and until large miners start to mothball current high cost mines; until, in short, 1500 of the 2000 miners go away, a new bull will not be borne, and bulls die slow deaths. Put me in the martin armstrong, paul van eeden, jimmy rogers camp. All three are bearish now, based on entirely different methodologies: Armstrong talks about global capital money flows, Van Eeden based on his own, proprietary money availability calculations, and Rogers based on simple bull market fib retracement measures. Me, I will add a 4th: deflation. Anyway, until gold sees 1000, which it will do in about 2 years from now, do not get involved in this toxic sector. All 3 of my colleagues say that 1000 is coming. By that time, the sector and current management teams will be destroyed, which will lay the basis for the next bull market. There is a time and place for all things. Find the bull market and you will be much healthier and sleep better. let the bull do the labor for you. it will. best.
I agree that gold is in bear market now and that it was good to be bullish on gold 10 years ago. However, past events are the only things that can be predicted with 100% accuracy. Going forward is less predictable. It might be correct that bear market in gold will continue for 3 years, but realistically speaking this number is hardly right. Most likely, it will be different t, e.g. 1 year or 5, whatever; simple statistics indicate that the number is not predictable.
In other words, real investment planning/analysis should be reduced, imho, to things that can be assessed in more specific, predictable ways, e.g. next quarterly earnings or present balance sheet or current management policies or present valuation relative to peers and in absolute terms. These things allow separating good stocks from bad ones and the rest goes to practical investment moves: you buy good stocks, which are better than peers, trying to achieve better relative performance. Sometimes this move will get market help, i.e. you buy some good stock in a sector and voila the whole sector gets positive market push next week. Sometimes, this move will be less successful; the whole sector goes to dumpster. If the analysis was good then it can bring more positive outcomes than negatives.
Doing small practical and reasonable investment moves consistently can help to get better investment results in long term. These results will be inevitably smaller than any big victories reported on Yahoo message boards, but still they can provide rational basis for the whole business of individual stock investment.
Hi Warmcamp, You are as usual the voice of reason, and also many good thoughts. I did write like I have a crystal ball, and I do not, as you very modestly point out. Here is something for you my friend: I have always taken huge swings, some right, some wrong, but to be right on a huge swing means huge profits. These days people would use the word "quantum." Anyway, here is a thesis for you to at least consider. Healthcare. My idea is that is simply must be in a bull market. America has perhaps has many as 100 million seniors, with a 300 mil populations. These people will all be dying over the next 20 years, japan revisited. Our socialist society hybrid will kill to get low cost solutions. What does that mean. This is my trivia question to you. I will post an answer later........my answer, but still, we must be nimble, thought and quick. later. kevin
Ya' gotta' buy low, in order to sell high. I'll gladly average in while the sector is in a bear market. The end of bear market often catch many off guard. Not much room to drop, LOTS of room above, and a divvy to boot, I'm just starting to BUY, which imo, gets stronger, the lower it goes. A GOLD MINE, literally, at what I consider now, and going forward, a STEAL of a price, but we'll see...
This is in the process of happening again, but it takes a lot of time. I am predicting a 3 year bear market. Look at how long the other one took, and what it did to the share price of a former industry leader.. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CDE+Basic+Chart&t=my
we are a year to a year and a half into this bear market. Why do I say at least 3 years, apart from the targets of my illustrious colleagues? As additional food for thought: As Jimmy R points out, the bull in gold was very strong, lasting a dozen or so years, an unprecedented time, according to him. Does anybody here in their right mind thinks that something like that corrects in a little more than a year? Not a prayer. I think more likely 3 years, to destroy every last bull and shake them all off, and wipe out this high cost, rotton to invest in, industry. I think there was like a 2.5 year hiatus in the 1970s gold bull market, where it went into a hibernation, and the run we have had this century was stronger no doubt about it, so the bull should hide longer, while the deflation rages. Just the way it is. Armstrong says 3Q of 2015 it returns. IAG will be sitting at 2.5 bucks a share by that time, refusing to budge for the longest time. Then you know it will be time to buy. When it and they are dead in the water for months on end.