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IAMGOLD Corp. Message Board

  • uklb51 uklb51 Apr 3, 2014 3:08 AM Flag

    My Gold Price Theory

    Gold took a dive in 2013 as everyone sold off knowing that QE would be ending, which means less demand for bonds, thereby increasing the cost of holding gold. Simple logic there, which is has a major flaw. The price of gold has been rising since well before QE.

    QE added a lot of liquid assets to the banks balance sheets, which was not lent out. I theorize that it is being used to allow the high amount of margin built into the stock market right now. If QE did not increase the monetary supply, then what has allowed the net value of stocks to increase by about 10 Trillion USD? Without wages increasing it will become apparent that most stocks will not be able to perform to their stock price. Essentially, QE encouraged risk, which is now completely out of control.

    If the market does not crash, inflation must take off to support the valuations. If the market does crash, money will move to safer bonds driving down the yields further than where they are already. This is not to mention that government (local and fed) stimulus via a deficit has not been fixed yet, which will have a negative impact on demand on the economy. Further more, bond yields cannot rise as government debt would spiral out of control.

    Essentially, the real inflation rate must stay low or go lower.

    Short term, you are already seeing the momentum stocks begin to struggle and there are major warnings about Q1 earnings. I currently believe these are real warnings and we will start to see fear in the market very soon.

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