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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • sommesound sommesound May 13, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

    Target Price

    Morgan Stanley raises target price to $70. Estimated earnings 2015- $7.75

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    • I can't see how any of the Atlas companies can earn $7.75 in 2015. I'd be thrilled but I think there is a misprint somewhere.

      • 1 Reply to davidbdc2001
      • It is more likely than you would expect. Check out the latest presentation from APL. The $400 million in preferred shares turn in to 13.4 million common shares in 2 years. ($29 a share for those special people) Add in the shares that may be sold on going and 90 + million APL shares vs 52 million or so ATLS shares in 2 years or less.
        Multiplier in high IDR's will be 90/53 or 170% of the growth of APL distributions over 60 cents per share. The same will happen with ARP.
        APL at $4 pe year gets ALTS another $2.72 compared to another $1.4 for APL not including the common shares ATLS owns. ARP will have similar math at some point.
        I could go into the drivers of the rise from current $2.40 to $4.00 on APL but think the 2015 time frame is a bit agressive. Natural gas prices would have to cooperate.
        ARP would need a bit lower growth to have the same impact,
        If I were doing the estimates I would go out to 2016ish for possible over $7 from ATLS.
        Nice to think about.
        Maybe I should keep all my shares instead of diversifying more.
        Jim

    • is that for 'atls?

 
ARP
7.51-0.09(-1.18%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT