You have very little downside risk here. The price could pop 6 points on the next acquisition/ investment vehicle announcement.
You probably missed the absolute low in the 21's back in December. But who cares? You have plenty of upside here with accelerating DCF.
Agree, ARP appears to be like a coiled spring. They have a lot of promising prospects. The Lycoming Marcellus wells are great, but in reality, they won't move the needle too much when you take into account the high decline and the fact that they only have fractional interest in the wells..but they do contribute a lot this year. The real kicker is the Marble Falls. This area could be a game changer. Very high IRR oil play. Wells are very inexpensive so overall risk is low on a well by well basis so they have essentially execution and some geologic risk.
I intend to wait until after they price the new units. The price on these MLP's who issue new stock tends to go below the new issue price for a short time after the new issue price announcement. May or may not happen this time.