Having listened to conference call for all of the entities, and presentations, I have concluded
that their 3 person due diligence staff for new purchases looks at very few deals, and made a hasty
purchase of the last big NG deal. A mistake...a few, $200 million bolt-on's and such would have been
more prudent and appropriate.
They were probably pushed by our billionaire leader to get ARP to the high splits ASAP.
This is why I assign an 11% yield to price ratio going forward. The stock in the low $20's is still
a bargain, if they execute well, we should be at a distribution level of .70 a quarter by the end of
2014 and a corresponding stock price of approximately $25. I can live with that.
Wrote a bunch of puts at $17.5 for a bit of income as well. The downside is $19. The upside is
$25 in the next year.
Did you see that our leader, Dr. Cohen rakes in almost $9 million a year from the the 3 entities in
salary. Seems a little high to me.
Were these the same 3 people that made 3 good deals? I think that they know that this last deal could have been better, by the way the stock responded. It couldn't have been that terrible considering that the stock was oversubscribed at the offering. When they execute and DCF goes to 2.80 next year we will see our 30 dollar stock price.
On the positive side: They did make the very good acquisitions as well!
Let's hope they treat us fairly and execute well going forward
I do expect a DCF of between $2.70 and $$2.80 for 2014. I will be grateful if we ever see the high 20's. If they execute on most fronts we will see a $3 total distribution level in 2015 and a stock price in the upper 20's.