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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • jberns2421 jberns2421 Oct 8, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    NG Prices

    November contract prices up 20 cents in 2 days. Let's get this party started.

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    • Well, I'm not holding my breath.

      We have more than ample supply and are still burning off NG in many oil-producing geographies. Tough to see a move that gets us over $4 for a sustained period of time.

      We've have to have a winter of 77 or 78 before we'd see the demand boost required.

    • A colder than normal winter puts us in the $4's and is very
      good ARP, affording the opportunity to layer hedges at higher
      prices and benefit from current unhedged production at the margin.

    • New Credit Suisse Commodity Outlook Adjusts US Natural Gas Price Forecast Down - The Credit Suisse Commodity team published their latest forecasts last week (see Commodities Forecast) in which they revised their 2013-2016 US natural gas price forecast to $3.70/$3.90/$4.20/$4.40 from $4.00/$4.00/$4.40/$4.70 per MMBtu as a result of weaker demand in 3Q 2013, expected strong supply growth in the back half of 2014, and continuing improvements in basin efficiency. These numbers are solidly lower than the consensus of $3.78/$4.05/$4.50/$4.73 and more bearish than the IHS forecast of $3.75/$3.85/$4.47/$4.88 (with the exception of 2014.)

19.42+0.25(+1.30%)Sep 16 4:04 PMEDT

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