I bought arp and apl for their assets and distribution yields, not for the distribution targets. I was anticipating the distribution targets were stretches, so I am not disappointed as long as the asset base stays strong, the debt stays reasonable and "operating cash flow" on an annual bases covers distributions for both companies and reasonably distribution increases are in the offing.
Cohen has been spouting off $2.35 in total distributions for fiscal 2013. That would have required us to get to $.65/unit for Q3 and Q4. Keep in mind they were throwing this number out nearly 6-7 months ago. This didn't just fall apart.
I think someone else put it very succinctly: Cohen will hold out hope until the bitter end that things will turn around and he can get on the conference call and brag about how smart they are.
Now he just nose-dived APL, ARP and ATLS...."quite satisfying"..."exhilarating"..."we rush in where others are fleeing"...
Some of the natural gas pricing in the Marcellus dropped well under $2 per million btu's. Delays in producing in Ohio unfortunate. That these were banger wells and should have had an impact on DCF is a given. The fact that ARP was using this expected production in areas that they did not have any production to pump up distribution expectations is beyond aggressive. I hope the current estimates are conservative. I hate getting burned by management building up to a crash. Lucky for me the Lynn issues let me buy in low enough that I will still make a decent return on distributions.