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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • moneyonomics moneyonomics Nov 7, 2013 8:06 PM Flag

    The raton/blackwarrior contributed 70% as much to volumes on a cubic foot equivalent as all other areas combined

    price received per emcf could have been lower but so would have operating cost so margin was probably good and could have been one of the major supports to the distribution increase

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    • It was an ok quarter. Coverage was 1.05x. Oil production climbed by about 250 bbl/d over 2nd Q numbers. Not bad, especially if they can continue to show incremental gains in coming quarters. Clearly the Mississippi Lime has contributed based on volumes. I'm very shocked to see the Marble Falls volumes up only a "paltry" 36 bpd. Will be interested in hearing how many wells remain to be completed.

      Looks like Barnett is doing very well, perhaps why Schumacher got promoted to COO. This is 3Q's in a row of solid Barnett results in terms of volumes.

      Actually glad to see a "real" E&P guy now handling operations.

      The Raton/Black Warrior deal looks to have helped overall LOE. NGL realizations have gone up $2/bbl and gas realization has also crept upwards. I'll need to see a few successive quarters of solid volumes before I declare that deal a success.

      According to previous release, 80% of '14 expected volumes are hedged. I'd peg expected '14 gas volumes at 230,000 mcf/d. Based on current hedges and strip prices, realized prices will likely be above '13 realized prices. Applying same logic and looking at strip in '15-'17, it appears that realizations are flattening, but are well above '13 prices.

      No mention of investment partnership funds raised. Ought to be winding down in the next month. I still pencil in $125 million (same as '13).

      Assuming management learned their lesson on overpromising and underdelivering on distribution growth, I think the '14 projection of $2.40 to $2.60 looks achievable.

      I'd throw out a projection of $.58 for Q4, $.59 for Q1 '14, $60 for Q2 '14, $.61 for Q3 '14 and $.62 for Q4 '14. That would get us to $2.42 for '14

      The "growth story" remains mostly intact, but clearly a big disappointment from the original early '13 projection of ending the year at $.65/Q ($2.60 annualized).

      NGL volumes up 300 bpd too.

      Yield now over 11%. Not good for acquisitions, but perhaps it forces them to focus on operations as bdc has stated before...

 
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