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Patriot Coal Corporation Message Board

  • winhedge winhedge Feb 22, 2009 7:17 PM Flag


    I have followed PCX over the months. The broader markets are dragging everything down deep along with all commodity, utility, and energy stocks. My short postions remain strong as of today. However, l have to cover most of my short interests on the sectors. According to the various ETF's charts, I remain confident energy is going to be one of the best places for be for a few reasons:

    Intuitively the public understands the need for energy far more than, say, the need for software as a service or high-end cheeseburgers;

    The public also has a general sense as to just how far energy prices have fallen and, thus, the opportunity for a rise;

    1. From a technical basis, the charts in the sector have the closest thing resembling a base
    2. The lower trendline of OIH was violated last week, but it's a small trendline. I am leaving it where it is in order to maintain chart integrity. The moving averages, however, may be setting up for OIH to make a nice move higher. The percentage gains that I think are possible in this group are upwards of 70%, so I want to be ready when the time comes.

    In terms of PCX, I am extremely comfortable with the postion now. some of the reasons are

    1. Sentiment in the options market seems somewhat bullish.
    2. The shrot interest has increaded over the monthes. Short
    sqeeze will be coming soon. It will be explosive. Be
    3. Coal price is stablizing.
    4. It is at the bottom of its trading range. Not much risk.
    5. Acording to the summary of David's notables
    moves, New 1.3M share stake in Patriot Coal Corporation.
    He killed Lehmans by naked shorting it to death. He is
    one of the best hedge fund traders as far as l am

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    • FYI: David Eighorn bought those shares june 8th , 2008

      • 1 Reply to cabogordon
      • Winhedge,

        You are awesome. I give you a credit for your ananlysis. I have reviewed all of your messages posted. You stated yesterday that you covered most of your short interest on other stocks and bought some stocks. All the stocks you bought yesterday is going up along with the market. I have ingnored most of messages posted by idiots. But, your market ananysis and timing is excellent. After reviewing your analysis, l bought some more to average down. Thanks again for your help. Keep posting your ananlysis.

    • I don't buy/sell any stocks based on the news or articles. My main focus is to ananlyze the charts. Fair value is around $12 -$12.68/sh. If you are a short term holder, $5.13/sh is about right time to sell. If you are a long-term holder, l would hold it until it reaches at the fair value. My quick answer is based on the S-T charts. I have to analyze more intensively to provide you mor acculate information. Please read my message posted last week "SPX 750-741". That is exactly happened today. I can promise you one thing. If you can buy/sell stocks/index fund based on SPX, you will be better off. That is the easiest way to make a good profit. Good Luck.

    • Winhedge - what is your 6 month target on PCX?

    • Please real all messages i have posted. I have accumulated some stocks. Before l start accumulating any stocks, First thing l do is to analyze the charts(SPX, QQQQ, VIX,various EFTs) I posted that SPX will test 741. After that, I do intensive research inclucing hedgefund move. And start accumutating stocks that have a potential to go up with a minimun risk. That is why picked PCX, AA, NYX(boght at the last minute), USO(added more today), WFC(took some profit). I still have lots of short postions on various stocks (includins untrashort ETF's) that l have posted.

      PCX is my long-term holding, NYX (my target is around $22/sh), WFC(speculative buy), AA(target $9/sh). Like l posted yesterday, l covered many of my short interest with a decent profit today. My target to cover most of short interest was SPX 741. I covered them aound SPX 746. Then l bought NYX at $15.52/sh.

    • I would not hold my breath for that.

      Pre market is more meaningful than AH, and with this kind of volume, the AH data does not have much meaning. I would not be too excited if goes up 3%, wouldn't be too worried if it goes down 3%.


    • A/H, PCX acting a little better.

      Traded as high as 3.17


    • all traders do swing, the difference is time frame to hold your positions. Day traders hold few minutes to few hours. Do not know your holding period.

      If your holding period is not long, I think you can completely forget FA. If you plan to hold for at least 1 year or two, you can start to look at FA. The thing is FA will not be reflected in stock price tomorrow, probably not next week either.

      I was tempted to snap 10000 shares of PCX before the closing bell as well, but the market didn't give me much confidence. My gut feeling is the market will be down tomowwow. (AIG news send me a chill. Where is the bottom?)

      Look at FCL, MEE, JRCC, ACI, they all have plenty room to fall. I agree PCX does look like stabilized some, but if all coals(FCL, MEE, JRCC, ACI) are sold off tomorrow, PCX will be sold off as well.

      Good luck

    • I am a swingtrader, not a daytradr. In terms of PCX, I strongly believe that PCX is a way undervalue. That is why l have accumulated it.

    • do not know your trading frame. It does not to seem you do day trading, if so, I think you have added too quick. The direction is still not very certain.

      If your holding period is couple of weeks or couple of months, PCX may go to 10, so even if you buy it at 4, it is pretty good, at least by then it gives you the sense of directions.

      My gut feeling is tomorrow will be down again. I have been tempted to pick up some PCX shares as well, but I will wait it longer. I may miss the train, but that's the risk I am willing to take.

      Good luck,

    • At this point, it is just about the market. If the breaking news on AIG starts to be sink in, the markets could open lower tomorrow. But maybe not. Maybe we will get a respite.

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