(1) Shape Ups trend is slowing down considerably. This is probably due to a combination of bad press, consumer frugality, and the product being good but not exceptional. If it were more a seasonality issue the management would have pointed it out clearly.
(2) 4Q earnings are going to be near flat.
(3) International expansion is taking place, which bodes well for the future.
(4) Management is less than transparent as they dried to make it see as though it was a stellar quarter, where it obviously was not.
(5) I am afraid that the lack of buyback and dividend might have to do with management uncertainty about the future.
Yet, valuation is still very low therefore, as long as earnings do not start to move in the opposite direction (i.e. down), then longer term we should be fine.
Your thought appreciated. This includes shorts only if you have a rational argument. Otherwise abstain.
You hit my main takeaways. Estimates now need to come down along with corresponding analyst downgrades. The good news is, the SI dropped signficantly as of 10/15. I'm going to walk away from it but watch the action. If it gets to $16-18 in a hurry, I'd consider buying it for a trade.
16 to 18
Come on -- you're assuming investors are going to be absolutely brain dead to give this away at 16.
It's one thing to miss an earnings report... it's another to simply look at a chart and sell because the "trend is down". But then again... there are a lot of brain dead investors out there.
Let's assume earnings of $2.00 this year... and growth of 1% for the next 10 years and book value at cash -- $5/share.
This is about as lowball as you can get... DCF analysis yields fair value at $21.
So here we are -- you get a chance to enter a growing co. with a top brand name in an expanding market... at less than lowball numbers.
The 'risk' has been squeezed out today. And yet everyone advises 'caution'. But they'll happily buy BIDU at 113 because the 'trend is up.
Sure -- bring on 19, 18. 16, sell it down to 5. Need to find more brain dead players.. but I guess there's plenty out there.
wow, for the 100th time here..SKECHERS just had a record quarter in sales
and they have only JUST BEGUN to expand internationally. most of these sales are not even hitting the books yet in many countries
they are not going to buy back shares when massive revenue gains and investment are occuring overseas
this is exactly what i as a growth investor in cheap stocks wants to see, not a temporary "bailout"
however, if they ever do a buyback the stock will surge
I have been waiting for this opportunity. Am now long. Flat expectations are what most companies are telling stockholders - just to be safe. A good Christmas season should do well for the company. Buying at a rediculously low PE. Good luck longs, I think this pig has pork left in it!
I'm attracted to their international success as the number of stores are growing at a nice rate. I also felt on the conference call that their current inventory situation is getting worked out and that we may see a nice cash flow after the holiday season - I wouldn't expect a share buy back or dividend when they are in this growth phase. Also, the Shape-up competition is reduced to three other brands which they will dominate. Their 90+ patents will secure that position. I'm a buyer here.
Never could have imagined in 2008 that Skechers would be so well known and have the #2 market share of sports type shoes behind Nike. Even if toning suddenly went poof I think they'd still have a company with $17 book value (assume $2 after tax write off for inventory if that actually happened) $5 in cash and $1.50-$2 in earnings.
The whole call he kept having to remind the analysts that people are actually buying their shoes in large numbers. So SKX is kind of priced as a troubled company here, when the extent of future problems is really unknown. If you want to view as a turnaround play, just compare to K-Swiss market cap of 1/2 what SKX is.... and K-Swiss has very small market share by comparison.