Consider a slightly safer strategy than buying calls ... sell downside puts. Sell the April $16 or $17.50 after we get the analyst downgrades (don't go out farther than April because I think we will have one more bad report when we hear from them in May).
Best to you, car.
PS: Thanks for the FF channel checks ... I need to go to my local one soon to see what's up.
Good to hear from ya. Yeah, I'm not as bullish long term as I was a few days ago.
All the price checks and posts I've been doing for the last 3 months have been validated (can't wait to see the daggers in my back for this comment). They are not reducing inventory without significant margin erosion. They are increasing it with margin erosion.
The store in my area that I've been watching somehow in 8 days reduced toner inventory from ~270 pairs to what looks like around 100 pairs. The shelves were empty. No idea where they went but no way they could be sales. Maybe Skechersoe was right about the egyptian tanks firing them into crowds lol.
It is possible that shorts are going to cover the news which is why I might take a stab at some calls depending on tomorrows action. I see no other reason for this stock to go higher at this point. Management has no cred in my mind.
Car, my two cents: I think it is too early to get bullish with SKX. Q1 is going to suck. Looks like revenue will be below $450m vs. current analyst expectations of over $500m. Margins will be far lower than analyst expectations, so they will be bringing down their eps expectations from 57 cents.
Also, did you notice that the number of analysts was down from the last couple quarters? The sell-side analysts are losing interest. Not good.
I think we'll see a selloff over the next 3-4 days as analysts come out with their reports. Low $18s is my guess. After that, I think we'll just drift around until management regains credibility (this coming fall?).
I'm changing my rating to Hold, but it is with a slight downside bias for now.
more free advice from me: the greenberg filing is nothing. they own 35% of the company and whenever they convert b shares to a shares they have a new filing. disregard it.
as for janus' huge purchase, that is a buy signal of massive proportions.
According to my readings of current SEC filings for Robert Greenberg, he is selling a part of his share of the company.
(b) PERCENT OF CLASS
Robert Greenberg 8.1%(2)
M. Susan Greenberg 8.1%(2)
The Greenberg Family Trust 8.1%(2)
(b) PERCENT OF CLASS
Robert Greenberg 11.0%(3)
M. Susan Greenberg 11.0%(3)
The Greenberg Family Trust 11.0%(3)
They sold a lot last year and your post indicates 2-16-10 for the last filing.
Is this just his yearly one, to disclose?
I have not gone back and added up all his sales from last year, but his filing looks like business as usual. I will try to check it and give some better numbers.
I like Janus showing up. I went back and glanced and could not find them in the past listings. I only got to page 4 before the numbers got low enough I stopped looking.
Thats four major buyers and one seller for the hedgies and tutes, the last 3 months or so.