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Skechers USA Inc. Message Board

  • quicktwosmile quicktwosmile Apr 25, 2012 4:32 PM Flag

    Earnings numbers were LEAKED to Instutitional Holders prior to announcement

    This stock started rising rapidly since April 17 on No moved from 13 to 15 .....on still No News .

    Someone inside of SKX leaked the number to Instutitional account holders who PUSHED the stock ahead of the earnings call and today on earnings day we see that Sales came in at the HIG end of the range and EPS BEAT guidance by alot.

    We also see that margins were up quite a bit in the quarter....

    Someone on the inside of SKX leaked these numbers prior to the reporting date .

    PLAIN AND SIMPLE ...........

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    • KPMG LEAKED THIS INFO..........

    • Lets see if the numbers get leaked again to hedge funds prior to the earnings call... ?

      No big movement yet so no tells on direction......

      Last Quarter SKX leaked the numbers to put the pressure on the shorts.

    • The problem " I " am having with SKX right now is trying to figure out the real revenue run rate ......

      The toner sales skewed the revenues soooooo high that its hard to get a handle on what to expect the REAL revenue run rate to be...

      Do Sales for Q3 drop a similar 25% year over year as Q2 ??

      Q3 ...the back to school quarter, should show postive eps but with zero quidance....who knows what David is going to say...?

      Falling Oil prices are a PLUS for some retailers AND restaurants AND Hotel operators AND Airlines ......but does GDP growth slow lower than the 2% expected and does this stall SKX's recovery ?

      This is one of the HARDEST stocks to get a handle on.....if the run-up in sales on Toners never happened then at least we would Have an idea of what a "normal" quarter of sales should/would be.

      I dont know if SKX can cut expenses AGAIN this quarter to make the eps numbers look good.....again. tough cookie to try and value .

    • quick,

      Look at the future of this company for a valuation.

    • Coming back down.....finally.

      $18's was way too high for the 25% revenue drop they showed EVEN if it did come in on the HIGH end of revenue expectations .

    • Ok....good luck to you with SKX .

      Its a very very tough stock to get your arms around.

      Hardly anyone has made money with it in the last 2 years, a quick look at the stock price shows every price spike up has been met with an equal spike down .

      My gut feeling on the FTC fine ISNT going to be as bad as REEBOK since SKX didnt use actually numbers in claiming muscle gains as Reebok did the monmey SKX set aside should cover whatever is coming........

      As I typed last night I think people are digesting the 26% drop in revenues this morning and the stock is quickly out of the $17 range and I think we see the $15's shortly.......

      It was a HELL OF A RUN if you got in on a whim at $13 and rode the train to $17.50 .........

      I did NOT see this run up coming and sold out at $13 ...2 days BEFORE she moved up congrats those who made the money when the news was leaked to the Instutitional holders who moved it hard and fast knowing SKX would beat on BOTH the Top and Bottem lines...

      I wish you the best and hope you see your price target is reached sooner rather than later......

      This is one tough stock play, it really if you can make money here....your travelling with a rare and lucky breed !

    • quick,

      I am a stuck long with an average price per share above the price we saw in the after market.

      Even though I may see a short boost in stock price I am in this for the long haul.

      My price target is over $25 at this point. I believe in the underlying fundamentals far more than most traders here.

      The shoes are what I believe in and I can see great things if the management team just does a mediocre job.

    • I finally listened to the whole cc.

      Sounds like they learned their lesson about going crazy ordering too much product and actually have supply issues for Q2. The $18.21 BV if they can break even this quarter should hold pretty well. I think many forget that with $7.95 per share in cash and 3% debt just how strong this balance sheet is, IMO anyway. That said, we now have a $10 stock that is trying to recover from a horrible product cycle. The FTC fine never got mentioned that I remember, this could take a hit when it is announced, but not reserving more might be a good sign, but the strength of the balance sheet could be affected, just a thought.

      If David W can be believed, the backlog could continue to build if these new styles are actually selling and they can get them made and shipped. I liked he did say they do not count backlog unless they have the ability to ship it.

      I had been leaning to hoping they would increase ad spend, but if they can not put the product on the market yet, it would be wasted money, so what the heck, blunder through this quarter, save the money, and sell what you have at full price if the demand is that high. They mentioned it as the reason margins could remain high again this quarter, then drop back to normal in back half.

      Just random thought after listening. There are not many of us left on the board it appears, so just throwing stuff out for everyone to pick apart.

      Congrads again to those longs that held on.

    • Good point the market DOES have a forward eye 6-9 months forward but the problem is when SKX promises something .....what are the chances that will be able to deliver ?

      Remember when the toner issue FIRST surfaced....and how long that invesntory issue hounded the company before the inventory levels really dropped ?

      So just because David W says he want to hit profitablity in the Back-Half of the year.....what is the chance that he actually can do far does the revenue run rate fall BEFORE it stabilizes and/or turns upward again.......

      This morning you had a $17.50 stock, that has lost money in 3 out of its last 4 qurters AND telegraphed its going to lose money again in the NEXT whats fair value for a company in that situation ? Not $17.50 .....which is what prompted to say its headed back down towards $15 as Investors digest the declining revenue run rate and try and figure out when and when this company STOPS bleeding red.

      I tip my hat to you if you MADE money here on this short and quick run up over the last 7 days.

      It was one of the very very few run-ups we have had in the last 24 I am happy for the few who made money on this name. Your are rare and lucky few....congrats

      But now you have to digest whether its better to take the short term gains OR trust in David W to see what he can actually deliver in the back half of the year.........

      .....take the money and bolt one of the few walking out of this SKX casino with money in your hands .

      Again, I tip my hat to you.......well done. This was a very very hard name to play and if you got it right - your in a rare space !

      I just hate the idea that the news was leaked and that caused the rise 3-4 days before the earnings actually came out......screams of the same type of funny business that sent Raj to jail for 11 years for getting and trading on the earnings reports before they were even released !!

      Thats how this big guys outperform the little guys, they PAY insiders to leak them the info before anyone else has it and then they trade on it......ulgy.

    • My understanding is the market has a forward looking eye.

      If this is the case, wouldn't it be wise to consider the back half of the year as the management has stated it expects to return to profitability?

      After listening to the CC I get the feeling that management will try to break even or show a little profit in Q2.

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