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Skechers USA Inc. Message Board

  • astuteone123 astuteone123 Jul 24, 1999 12:11 PM Flag

    SKX (Skechers USA) short interest is

    reduced from the 6/15 661,115 shares to 7/15's
    324,261 shares. With average daily trading volume,
    according to the WSJ at 324,261, current short interest
    represent one day's trading.

    SKX's IPO on 6/9 @ 11,
    opened at 10 1/2, peaked at 11, traded as low as 10 3/8,
    closed at 10 5/8. On 6/10, SKX opened at 10 5/8, traded
    low at 10 9/16, high at 11 7/8 closing at 11 13/16,
    up 1 3/16. On Friday 6/11, SKX opened at 11 15/16,
    peaked at 12 3/8 (all time high), low as 11 1/2 and
    closed at 11 13/16 again. On Monday 6/14, SKX opened 11
    13/16, peaked at 11 7/8, traded low @ 11 1/16, closed at
    11 1/8, off 11/16. On Tuesday, 6/15, SKX opened 11
    1/16, traded high at 11 1/4, and low at 10 5/8 where it
    closed, off 1/2 on a closing basis.

    I list this
    trading record as 6/15 was the closing of June's short
    interest. I must assume the June shorts were placed between
    10 3/8 on 6/9 and the 12 3/8 on 6/11 or
    inbetween.

    With July short interest cut almost in half, it's
    instructive to note at least half of the shorts saw fit to
    cover.

    Between 6/15, the cutoff date used for the June short
    interest numbers and 7/15, SKX traded high @ 10 13/16 on
    6/22 and low
    @ 6 9/16 (intraday) on 7/15, closing
    at 6 7/8.

    The "fall apart" day for SKX was
    July 6, opening @ 10, down 1/4 from 7/2. The July 6
    open @ 10 marked the high, it's low being 7, closing @
    7 3/4, off 2 1/2 points on volume of 2,078,500
    which marked 29.69 % of the entire float (7 M shares in
    the IPO).

    With the short interest cut 50 %,
    shorters aren't continuing to prey upon SKX at reduced
    levels. IMHO the selling is coming from those who were
    "harpooned" in the IPO and had their shares wither from 11 to
    the low 6's representing an approximate loss of 43 %,
    and higher than - 43 % for those who bought in the
    aftermarket.

    A situation like this has a mirror side
    to it. The mirror side is that what is someone
    else's "refuse" can often be the "gold" others can find.
    I say buy when "adversity" bounds and as painful as
    the drop is for those that entered "too early,"
    that's how "beneficial" this will turn out for those
    with the courage to stare what seems as "adversity" in
    the face and hit the "buy" button.

    This won't
    last forever. I've read the reports published by B. T.
    Alex Brown and Prudential Securities in detail. I've
    read SKX's marketing plans. Skechers is the FASTEST
    growing footwear brand in the entire U. S. over the past
    three years with sales growth compounding at a 50 %
    annual rate and operating income growing at a 166 %
    rate. Skechers had total sales of $ 373 M in 1998 with
    B. T. Alex Brown calling for 20 to 25 % sales growth
    per year over the next three years.

    Skechers
    has grown at a faster rate than "any other" footwear
    brand in the U. S. over the past three years.

    I
    could go on and on and give other comparisons as to
    where Skechers (SKX) fits in the overall footwear
    industry, but don't have the time now to do so. Suffice it
    to say, in any comparison, whether it be comparing
    SKX to it's competitors or any specific competitor,
    SKX wins hands down.

    It's always nice to see
    your stock purchases to immediatly trade higher, but
    the "real money" is made when you have ample time to
    "load up" to your heart's content, taking full
    advantage of those who are simply "jumping ship" for the
    reasons I've attempted to state above, all of which are
    "emotional" and not based on fact.

    SKX closed at 6 1/4
    in Friday's trading on 142,600 shares, considerably
    reduced from it's average daily trading volume (according
    to the WSJ - Yahoo doesn't post as yet). The last
    trade of the day was a purchase of 10,000 at 6 1/4
    removing the 6 3/16 offer and probably the entire 6 1/4
    offer (but we really won't know until Monday's
    open).

    I view SKX as extremely undervalued and continue to
    load up at these depressed levels.

    AO 123

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    • read it and weap


      Pickle_007 aka "the LION"

      """

    • <EOM>

    • can you please tell me why youre sooooooooooo
      quiet.is it because you swallowed something or you cant
      pay youre electricity bill to turn on youre
      computer!!!!!!!!i think its because youre an insider and youre
      trying to hype this stock with youre
      bulllllllllllllllllllllllll ssshhhiiittt. Skx is the biggest loser in my
      opinion because theyre not original with their styles and
      costumer service to other retailers they want all the
      profit for themselves and that dosent work in this
      bussiness you need other retailers to promote youre
      merchandize.

    • you're looking at it pretty narrowly. To my way
      of thinking, the stock is down over 40 percent over
      a few days, and is starting to recover. It opened
      at 11, briefly was up to 12, and then dove to the 6+
      range for a couple weeks.

    • eom.

    • You said
      >>Just a thought--don't think a
      company would want to put bad news out over
      internet--perhaps company has a good story to tell--
      <<

      It happened to me on HS when they broadcast their
      1Q99 (3/99) results. They were expected to make 9
      cents, but ended up breaking even. The stock gapped down
      at the open from 5.50 to 4 7/8. But what saved their
      bacon was an announcement in the CC of a so called
      "investment" by CA into HS. Without the announcement, it would
      have been a brutal bloodbath. I don't think SKX has
      bad news in store for us. I'm just saying this
      because a live CC on the internet don't always mean good
      news.

    • most companies are seeing profit taking after earnings and skx is up over 10 percent in a few days...dont back up the truck yet...

    • Yea, Right, I'm a shoe salesman. "What do you
      need, a double E?"

      Seriously, I'm not getting
      all that excited about tomorrow's earnings. I'm
      hoping and expecting that they are good but I plan to
      hold 'til September or at least until after Labor
      Day.

      Reasons - I don't think institutions will enter or
      initiate coverage (outside of those that did the IPO)
      until they have more data aside from one quarterly
      earnings report. I'm hoping that institutional specialists
      will track and follow NPD, internal Retail, and other
      P.O.S. data during the upcoming Back to School retail
      selling season. I think those numbers will be positive
      for SKX and create a firmer foundation.

      The
      Quarterly may get their attention, but good sell-through
      numbers for Back-to-School will clinch involvement. Good
      NDP/POS infers higher bookings for next year and creates
      at least a mid-term level of confidence. If you look
      at I-Watch, Retail brokerage is carrying a lot of
      the activity - I'm betting on a higher return once
      sell-through numbers are firm.

      You have to remember,
      this industry witnessed a lot of channel stuffing
      lately (see: TNFI) and retail POS data is a good
      confirming barometer of real consumer demand and strength of
      business. I think SKX will pass with flying colors, but if
      I was an Institutional broker, I'd want the best
      data available before I made recommendations or
      invested huge sums in SKX or any other stock in this
      industry.

      Then again, I could be wrong. This stock position is
      mid to high-risk money in my portfolio.

      IMHO

    • Hey, be careful about getting in the middle of all the fighting. Ever seen what can happen to a pro-wrestling referee.
      Moose.

    • real name is AL Bundy, the shoe salesman. Am I
      right ? LOL at Mulberry for getting so serious about
      posting. Try getting serious about cancer or AIDS. Until
      you have either of those relax...with a can of spam
      maybe, eh ?

      peace,

      crack

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