You are right that BHSI has been on a pretty steady upward trendline since June 15, 2009. IF the BHSI/BDI is controlling the price/valuation of FREE there would also be a nice steady upward trendline for its share price. INSTEAD there is an INVERSE price trendline with closing prices DROPPING from $2.88 on 6/15/09 down to $1.23 on 6/9/10! With a year of history like this maybe we should pray for the BHSI to begin a steady decline! I think I'll concentrate on listed contract prices and fleet utilization perecentages and just continue to accumulate shares.
This could go either way from here. Sticking a "buy" recommendation on this stock makes you either very brave (or insane). Right now, no one can even say this is a long term buy and hold with any certainty! Except perhaps those that said the same thing about the S&P500 10 years ago...that was a good call, we're only 25-30% down from June 2000.
And do you think institutional investors (i.e. the ones that really drive price changes) will care what fleet utilisation and contract prices FREE are achieving today against a backdrop of increasing uncertainty reflected in a declining BHSI and wider market indices?
For the record: * BHSI bottomed on 12 Jan 2009, bumbled around for a couple of weeks before taking off in early Feb 2009. Peaks and troughs as it has increased but pattern of higher highs and higher lows has remained pretty much intact throughout. A sustained break below 1280 would break this pattern. A breach of 1020 would confirm the BHSI rally that began in Feb 2009 as DEAD.
* FREE bottomed in the first week of March at $0.52 and, ignoring its daft rally to June 2009, managed to almost triple to its April 2010 peak at $1.49.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see! And, btw, I sincerely hope you're right...I have over 100k shares!