And the drift down in FREE's sp continues.
So that's the first bit achieved of my BHSI prediction from Sep 17...second bit was the rally in the BHSI back up to 1100'ish by end of the year....driven mainly by the initial impacts of QE2 on global inventory re-stocking.
One further prediction:
The rally in the BHSI (if it does materialise) will have NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on FREE's shareprice from here. And that's for very obvious reasons that I have alluded to many times before...NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHERE SPOT PRICES WILL BE IN 2011; Q3 2010 will have proved that FREE's high exposure to the spot market leaves it DISPROPORTIONATELY VULNERABLE.
So those of you out there looking at the P/BV and thinking that this stock is a bargain...ask yourself what circumstances it will take to get the stock moving up so you can EXIT AT A PROFIT. You need INSTITUTIONAL INVOLVEMENT, not a bunch of retail investors getting excited about a low P/BV.
FREE's management have guided this stock down from $5+ to sub-$1 (based on the prices pre-reverse split). And it is now down almost 50% from Sep 2009, despite NAV increasing over that period. In other words, INSTITUTIONS HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MANAGEMENT AND THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THIS IS THE RIGHT LINE TO TAKE....personally I can't believe the sheer arrogance of FREE's management.
And all this from a disgruntled, long term long!!
good luck all, dyor etc etc
Wouldn't that be nice?!?! Maybe even Baltic Trading Ltd...
Glad you're back posting here Tenaedi...what's your take on DRYS...you were very bullish back in the Summer...any thoughts on where this could go into their results next week?
Investorplace are bearish...http://www.investorplace.com/21056/options-trades-on-company-earnings/6/
That's a bold call given only 11% of companies that have reported so far have failed to meet/beat expectations.
all the best,
Let me clarify the BALT buy signal. It occured in mid October in the $10.80s and has been very strong since. It currently appears a little ahead of itself in strength and that's the reason for my comment.
FREE buy signal didn't hold up so I feel like just staying away until the overall shipping situation turns. I am not liking the currency/bond problems world wide. Obama is certainly not a deal maker. I am still worried about an international attack on the dollar. This QE2 has not been thought out and the WH, Treasury and Fed really don't get how hypocritical they look overseas.