To date the Brown Dense is a complete "DOG". SWN only mention pressure and are fuzzy about details. Read the text when Mueller answers questions. SWN never say anything about the actual production tests (they do mention the best production within a 41 day time-frame and then shut the well in for a pressure build-up). What was the pressure draw down?
Logs and cores will depict very low porosity and permeability. RCB Capital and others do not know what questions to ask. Most analysts have limited geologic knowledge as can be demonstrating by the Bakken comparison. They did not pick up on Mueller stating the BLM well has more silt and less carbonates which tell us the porosities are probably lower than the first two wells. In addition, SWN state they completed a 19 stage frac on the BLM well.
If the BLM well was a really good well SWN would announce a good production test. Instead they need more time to evaluate the well. A good test would produce back the frac fluids in days to several weeks and SWN would start producing oil, gas and water A.S.A.P. The pressures probable drop dramatically upon testing, thus shut in for the build-up. You cannot put a spin on a dog. With the best production being 421 BOPD and 3.9 MCF along with 836 BWPD what will the rates be in 60-90 days with a 70% - 80% production decline curve.
They may still find a sweat spot but so far the results are poor! Ongoing activity suggest they are still searching for a sweet spot.
Yes, no 30 day rate was troubling to me as well. Still thought the results were better than the second well, despite this well having a shorter lateral. If the pressure depletes fast, as you suggest it might have, than I guess it doesn't matter much. Didn't they give permeability data on the other wells? Yet, they didn't say anything directly about permeability this time around.
I don't see what SWN has to gain by "spinning" this at all. They have two rigs working the unconventional plays, and those rigs are going to be there at least through year end because they don't want to lay them down and they don't want to drill for $3 gas with them. It is as simple as that this year, good well results or not.